周观：从货政委员会例会看债市破局时间点（2025年第25期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the interest rate remained in a box - shaped oscillation pattern with a slight upward trend. The key factor affecting the bond market is still the tightness of the capital market. Determining the timing of the next interest rate cut or the fermentation of the interest rate cut expectation is crucial for the downward breakthrough of bond yields. Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low. The 10 - year treasury bond yield will oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%, and investors can actively deploy when it is near the upper limit of the range [2][18]. - This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US Treasury still has strong allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the portfolio duration. The US real - estate market shows a continuous weakening trend under the high - interest - rate environment. The consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the number of initial jobless claims has decreased, while the number of continued jobless claims has reached a new high since November 2021. The Fed will wait and see economic data before deciding on policy adjustments [3][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - week Views - 10 - year Treasury Bond Yield in China: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond rose from 1.638% to 1.646%, an increase of 0.8bp. The yield was affected by multiple factors such as international events, capital market operations, and macro - economic data announcements during the week [1][13]. - Analysis of the Second - quarter Meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee: Compared with the first - quarter meeting, the assessment of the economic situation is more positive, and the attitude towards policy implementation is less urgent. The statement has changed from "choosing the opportunity to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate" to "flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low [2][18]. - US Treasury Yield and Related Data: This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US real - estate market is weak, the consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the Fed will wait and see economic data before policy adjustment [3][20]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation - Liquidity Tracking: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the central bank's open - market net investment was 10,672 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds have changed. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds have also shown different trends [32]. - Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking: The total commercial - housing transaction area has increased. Steel prices have decreased, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have generally increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, the inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rate, the Yu'E Bao yield, the vegetable price index, the RJ/CRB commodity price index, and the crude - oil price have all shown corresponding changes [55][57]. 3.3 One - week Review of Local Bonds - Primary - market Issuance Overview: From June 23 to June 29, 2025, 161 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 641.64 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 81.288 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 560.352 billion yuan. The issuance was mainly concentrated in 17 provinces and cities, with Shanghai, Hebei, and Beijing ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [69]. - Secondary - market Overview: This week, the stock of local bonds was 51.74 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 514.13 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.99%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local bonds generally increased [88]. - Local - bond Issuance Plan for this Month: No specific content provided. 3.4 One - week Review of the Credit - bond Market - Primary - market Issuance Overview: This week, 345 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 307.984 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 309.967 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 19.83 billion yuan. Among them, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 137.72 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 117.89 billion yuan [95]. - Issuance Interest Rate: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds have changed to different extents this week [109]. - Secondary - market Transaction Overview: This week, the total credit - bond trading volume was 697.213 billion yuan. The trading volume of each type of bond varied by rating [110]. - Maturity Yield: The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds have changed to different extents this week [112][114][115][117]. - Credit Spread: This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds generally widened [118][121][126]. - Grade Spread: This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [131][134][138]. - Trading Activity: This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each type are listed. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 412.071 billion yuan [143].