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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to perform stronger next week as PMI data is predicted to weaken marginally and liquidity at the beginning of the quarter is expected to loosen, with institutional willingness turning more active. However, the bullish trend of the bond market may not be smooth, as there is a lack of substantial incremental positive factors, and disturbances such as a strong stock market may occur from time to time [2][14] - Entering Q3, the pressure on the fundamental situation will increase, and the expectation of loose liquidity is difficult to be falsified. It is expected that the bond market will gradually strengthen. But the pace of the bond market's strengthening may be bumpy due to factors such as the bond market's full awareness of the fundamental environment, high bond market valuations, uncertainty about the implementation of loose policies by the central bank, and the interference of the stock market [15] - It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, as the short - end varieties may still outperform the long - end ones [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From June 23 - 29, government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. Various factors such as marginal tightening of funds, strong stock market performance, and institutional profit - taking intentions affected the daily performance of government bond futures. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.546, 102.265, 109.070, and 120.940 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.020, +0.010, - 0.070, and - 0.320 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be stronger than this week, but the bullish trend may not be smooth. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and also suggests strategies such as long - position holding, mid - line long - position layout on dips, and paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 177 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 8676.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 7806.52 billion yuan. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [22] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Government bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of June 27, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.50, +0.32, +0.46, and +1.05 bp compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [28] 3.3 Government Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - maturity government bond futures also had corresponding changes [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The funds were generally balanced and loose, the futures basis generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%. There were relatively few short - term IRR strategies [44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of June 27, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures contracts 2509 - 2512 had corresponding changes compared to last weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 12672 billion yuan. As of June 27, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week increased compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the overnight proportion was slightly lower than the previous week [53][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds declined. As of June 27, the US dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.2612 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds dropped 9BP to 4.29%. The Sino - US 10Y Treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 264.5BP. The easing of the Middle East conflict and the divergence of Fed officials' statements affected the market [64] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed performance, and agricultural product prices generally declined. As of June 27, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index changed compared to last weekend, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also had corresponding changes [68] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to take a bullish approach. Specific strategies include continuing to hold long positions, considering mid - line long - position layout on dips, moderately paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures, and continuing to hold the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as the 2TS - T strategy) [17][18][19]