流动性与机构行为跟踪：央行延续呵护，资金预计平稳跨月

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - Interest - rate bonds: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means interest risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means interest risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means interest risk increases and net price has room to fall [40]. - Credit bonds: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means credit risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means credit risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means credit risk increases and net price has room to fall [41]. - Convertible bonds: Based on the change of convertible bond price relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means convertible bonds perform better than the index; "Neutral" means performance is the same as the index; "Reduce holding" means performance is worse than the index [42]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Funds: In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [1]. - Certificates of Deposit (CDs): In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [1]. - Institutional Behavior: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers of interest - rate bonds, and the net buying power of rural commercial banks has significantly rebounded [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Funds Review - Central Bank's Operations: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the central bank had a net funds injection of 1267.2 billion yuan. This month, the net injection of MLF was 118 billion yuan, and the net injection of outright repurchase was 20 billion yuan. The OMO stock increased to 2027.5 billion yuan [10]. - Exchange Rate Movement: During the statistical period, the RMB depreciated by 1.62 basis points against the US dollar due to uncertainties in US tariffs and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [10]. - Government Bond Progress: In the past week, the net financing of national bonds was 111 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3350.16 billion yuan, completing 50.3% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 479.467 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2558.12 billion yuan, completing 49.2% of the annual plan. As of June 27, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 1.8 trillion yuan, completing 89.8% of the annual plan [13]. - Funds Structure: During the statistical period, the lending scale of national and joint - stock banks exceeded 5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - bank institutions decreased significantly. Due to the strong demand for cross - month funds, the core funds rate increased marginally, and the R - series and DR - series moved basically in sync, with an obvious increase in liquidity stratification [16]. 3.1.2 CD Review - Primary Market: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was - 411.35 billion yuan, and the issuance totaled 736.46 billion yuan, with a maturity volume of 1137.81 billion yuan. The average primary issuance rate was 1.6409% (previous value: 1.6556%). In the next three weeks, the maturities of inter - bank CDs will be 245.79 billion, 510.52 billion, and 802.81 billion yuan respectively [19]. - Secondary Market: During the statistical period, large banks, money market funds, and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, while insurance companies and other product accounts continued to hold. Joint - stock banks changed from buying to selling. City and rural commercial banks were still the largest counterparties. The secondary market yield of CDs fluctuated slightly upward, the yield curve remained inverted, and the curve above 3M steepened. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by 3.37BP/0.50BP/1.00BP/0.35BP/0.85BP respectively [21]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - Funds: The central bank continued to over - renew MLF in June, and has been renewing MLF for 4 consecutive months to inject liquidity, combined with a net injection of 20 billion yuan in outright repurchase. The funds market was in a balanced and loose state. In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [25]. - CDs: In the past month, the net financing of CDs remained negative. The central bank's increased open - market operations effectively relieved the banks' liability pressure, and the central level of primary CD rates decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [26]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking - Long - term Bond Funds' Duration: On June 27, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of long - term bond funds was 3.91 years, a slight increase from the previous period [31]. - Institutional Bond - Buying Behavior - Large Banks' Bond - Buying: In the past week, large banks bought 28.7 billion yuan of national bonds (previous week: 51.7 billion yuan), a slight decline [31]. - Interest - rate Bond Buyers: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers. Rural commercial banks' net buying power has significantly rebounded. In the past week, funds' net buying of interest - rate bonds was 89 billion yuan (previous week: 141.3 billion yuan), rural commercial banks' net buying was 47.3 billion yuan (previous week: - 127.2 billion yuan), and other products' net buying was 23.6 billion yuan (previous week: 42.8 billion yuan) [31]. - CD Buyers: Large banks, money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance companies are the main buyers. The net buying power of large banks and money market funds has significantly increased, while that of wealth management products and other products has decreased. In the past week, large banks' net buying of CDs was 73.2 billion yuan (previous week: 33.7 billion yuan), money market funds' net buying was 57.3 billion yuan (previous week: 41.6 billion yuan), wealth management products' net buying was 48.4 billion yuan (previous week: 80.9 billion yuan), and insurance companies' net buying was 23.5 billion yuan (previous week: 28 billion yuan) [31]. - Credit Bond Buyers: The net buying scale of major non - bank buyers of credit bonds has slightly declined. For credit bonds over 5 years, the net buying scale of non - bank buyers remained basically the same. Overall, funds, wealth management products, other products, money market funds, and insurance companies all participated in buying credit bonds, showing a balanced situation. For credit bonds over 5 years, insurance companies, wealth management products, and other products had strong buying power [31]. - Secondary Bond Buyers: The overall net buying demand is not strong. The net buying power of secondary bonds within 2 years has declined, and wealth management products are still the main net buyers. The demand for secondary bonds between 2 - 5 years and over 5 years has also declined significantly [31]. - Institutional Leverage Level: In the past week, the bond market leverage ratio was 107.93%, a continued increase from the previous period [32]. - Key Spreads: On June 27, the 10Y CDB - 10Y national bond term spread was 3.63bp, and the spread was converging; the 1Y CDB - R001 spread was 5.41BP, and the spread between short - term bond yields and funds prices widened slightly [34].