锌产业链周度报告：有色及贵金属-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the zinc industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of zinc are bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to volume - price changes [3] - The supply side has increased as expected. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, refinery and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a historical median. After concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries, production has increased, and new projects have been put into operation, increasing supply pressure [5] - The consumption side has entered the traditional off - season. Downstream restocking is cautious. Terminal domestic demand has entered the off - season, and the degree of export rush in external demand has gradually weakened, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates and a contraction in demand [5] - This year, with extremely low domestic visible inventories, the degree of expected trading has weakened. Price movements are mainly driven by macro - events and micro - level inventory changes. In the short - term, LME position concentration and CASH - 3M structure changes have driven the price to run strongly, and it is advisable to observe volume - price signals. In the medium - to long - term, prices are expected to remain weak as the off - season deepens. For internal - external strategies, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased supply and decreased demand in the domestic off - season, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract last week was 22,410, with a weekly increase of 2.59%. The night - session closing price was 22,460, with a night - session increase of 0.22%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc3 last week was 2,778.5, with a weekly increase of 4.89% [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract last Friday was 225,824, an increase of 121,128 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 142,428, an increase of 65,865 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc3 was 12,465, an increase of 5,650 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 209,978, an increase of 2,008 compared to the previous week [6] - Basis Changes: LME zinc basis changed from - 24.65 to - 0.24, an increase of 24.41; the bonded area zinc premium increased from 125 to 140; the spot basis of Shanghai 0 zinc decreased from 115 to 75; the spot basis of Guangdong 0 zinc decreased from 220 to 145; the spot basis of Tianjin 0 zinc decreased from 105 to 5 [6] - Inter - month Spread Changes: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract decreased from 170 to 80 [6] - Internal - External Spread Changes: The spot import profit and loss of zinc changed from - 577.18 to - 1,202.44, a decrease of 625.26; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc 3M changed from - 986.89 to - 1,214.06, a decrease of 227.17 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc concentrate inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. Port and refinery zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant [8][9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc concentrate mining profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable but at a relatively low level compared to the same period [10][11] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to a historical median. Refined zinc monthly operating rate is at a high level compared to the same period. Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc operating rates have decreased and are at a relatively low level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspect 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have fallen from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp. The LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [20] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory at a low level shows a stabilizing trend. The position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a historical median level. Global zinc visible inventory has slightly declined, and bonded area inventory has remained stable [21][26][29] 3.3.4 Futures - The open interest of the domestic market is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [30] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level. Domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level. The recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and refinery raw material inventories are abundant and at a historical high [33][34] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting production has marginally recovered. Refinery finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [35][38] 3.5 Zinc Demand 3.5.1 Downstream Processing Materials - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. Downstream monthly operating rates have slightly recovered, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [43][45] 3.5.2 Terminal - The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [57] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which affect the profitability of European zinc smelters [59]