铁矿石周度观点-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to experience a relatively strong and volatile trend, driven by macro - level positive factors. However, if the spot demand fails to improve, the upward space for iron ore prices will be limited, as the basis has rapidly shrunk to a multi - year low [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The impetus for end - of - fiscal - year output boost in Western Australia is coming to an end. Freight trends suggest that the short - term shipments of major Australian mines may decline on a month - on - month basis. The global iron ore shipment volume in the current week was 35.067 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.687 million tons. The cumulative year - to - date (YTD) global shipment volume was 750.293 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.703 million tons or 0.2%. Australian shipments decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4][5][17]. - Among major mines, BHP and Fortescue had end - of - fiscal - year output boosts. Non - mainstream mines showed that Peru's production recovered, and South Africa's output increased on a month - on - month basis. In the domestic market, the capacity utilization rate of mines in North China improved, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [18][20][27]. Demand - Blast furnace production remains at a relatively high level, and the output of the five major steel products is showing an upward trend. The daily average molten iron output of 247 enterprises was 2.4229 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0235 million tons [4][5][32]. - The substitution effect of scrap steel is relatively weak, as scrap steel arrivals are relatively neutral, and the price difference between scrap and iron continues to widen [33]. Macro - level - The optimistic sentiment spreading from the equity market has boosted the valuation of commodities. The strengthening expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening US dollar index are favorable for the valuation of iron ore [5]. Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract showed a relatively strong and volatile trend, closing at 716.5 yuan/ton. The open interest was 679,000 lots, a decrease of 3,100 lots. The average daily trading volume was 273,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 146,000 lots [7]. Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have not shown a significant follow - up increase, and the basis has further weakened. For example, the price of BRBF (62.5%) decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder (61.5%) decreased by 2 yuan/ton compared to last week [12]. Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory has not been significantly realized, and the inventories of Australian and Brazilian ores have shown differentiation. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 139.302 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.361 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.584 million tons. The block ore inventory has been continuously decreasing [37][38][39]. Downstream Profit - The prices of raw material futures have strengthened, and the basis has weakened, leading to a differentiation between spot and futures market profits [41]. Spot Category Price Difference - Recently, the inventory differentiation trend between powder ore and block ore has been obvious, and the price difference between PB block and PB powder has gradually strengthened [44]. Futures Month - to - Month Spread - The month - to - month spread has generally shown a "volatile and weak" trend recently. Although it is slightly higher year - on - year, the 9 - 1 spread has declined to a phased low on a month - on - month basis [50]. Basis Performance - The futures market has shown strong performance, while spot demand has remained weak. Recently, the basis has significantly shrunk [51].