铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of cast aluminum alloy futures remains strong, and the recent strong aluminum price provides good traction for the cast aluminum alloy price. Currently, it is in a stage of weak supply and demand. As the off - season deepens, the negative feedback of demand has emerged. Cast aluminum alloy enterprises have reduced their production due to sales pressure, which has decreased the demand for scrap aluminum and suppressed the scrap aluminum price. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in scrap aluminum circulation and the improvement signs on the demand side. The impact of the off - season has deepened, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream automotive consumption in June has continued to strengthen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [7]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.97 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73%, and the cumulative import was 85.66 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.09% [12]. - The scrap - to - refined price difference shows a trend of narrow - range oscillation and overall upward movement [4]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly in the short term, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 continues to weaken [25]. - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [30]. - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss state [41]. - The explicit and implicit inventories of cast alloys have increased slightly [46]. - The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [48]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods: The production volume and its proportion vary by region, and the inventory also shows certain characteristics [51][52][53]. Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. In June 2025, the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars reached 563,000, a year - on - year increase of 29.72%. Since May, the consumption of extended - range and plug - in hybrid models has significantly recovered, and the fuel - powered vehicle market has also shown a strong trend, jointly promoting the continuous strengthening of automobile consumption in June [4][58].