纯苯苯乙烯周报-20250629

Report Overview - Report Title: Pure Benzene and Styrene Weekly Report [1] - Author: Huang Tianyuan from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Date: June 29, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, there will be a small rebound in the peak season, squeezing EB profits [3] - In 2025, the supply - side pressure of pure benzene remains high, with increased production and imports, while the demand structure changes significantly, leading to high inventory. Styrene's high - profit state in the first half of the year is difficult to sustain in the second half, facing pressure to compress profits in Q3, but there may be a phased rebound in Q4 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Supply Situation - In 2025, domestic production will continue to increase. From January to May, the total pure benzene production was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The import volume from January to May was 2.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 64%, and the annual import is expected to be 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.7% [11][12] - The production of hydrogenated benzene is expected to remain flat throughout the year, and its market position may be improved in the second half of the year due to the futures listing and delivery rules. From January to May, the production of hydrogenated benzene was 1.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [4][16] - Demand Structure Changes - Styrene has become the core support for pure benzene demand. Other downstream sectors show different trends: caprolactam and aniline have turned from strong to weak, with annual apparent demand growth rates of +7% and - 8% respectively; adipic acid remains weak, with an expected 7% decline in annual apparent demand; phenol is relatively strong, with an expected 7% increase in annual apparent demand [4] - The downstream structure of pure benzene has changed significantly. In May 2025, styrene accounted for 46%, caprolactam 20%, adipic acid 7%, aniline 10%, and phenol 16% [36] - Inventory and Market Conditions - In the first half of 2025, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. In the second half, although domestic supply will continue to increase, it will gradually enter a destocking pattern, but the inventory will still remain high [4][11] Pure Benzene Futures - Contract Rules - The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, etc. The contract months are from January to December [55] - Risk Control Points - The risk control system includes regulations on price limits, position limits in different months, and margin requirements. The delivery system combines factory and warehouse delivery, with factory - based delivery [56][57] - Delivery Standards - Hydrobenzene and petroleum benzene are delivered at par. The delivery quality standard follows the national standard 545, and the delivery area includes Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, etc., with different regional premium and discount rules [57][60][61] Styrene - Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, styrene maintained a pattern of high profits, high operation rates, and low inventory due to reduced overseas supply and high downstream production [4] - Supply and Demand Situation in the Second Half of 2025 - On the supply side, with the large - scale restart of domestic and foreign plants and potential new capacity launches, as well as the recovery of overseas supply, styrene supply will be significantly restored [4] - On the demand side, the production scheduling growth rate of major downstream home appliances is weak, and domestic demand is sluggish. Exports are affected by trade policy uncertainties, so the demand in the third - quarter traditional off - season is under pressure [4] - Inventory and Profit Outlook - Styrene port inventory is expected to enter a stocking cycle from July to September after reaching the bottom in June. The high - profit state of styrene is difficult to sustain, and there is pressure to compress profits in Q3. However, if export orders arrive in Q4 and trade policies are favorable, styrene prices may have a phased rebound [4] Downstream Products of Styrene - ABS - The production, inventory, and profit of ABS are affected by the supply and demand of styrene. The production capacity utilization rate, inventory, and profit of ABS have shown certain trends over time [76][78][81] - PS - The production, inventory, and profit of PS also show corresponding trends, and the production capacity utilization rate and price of PS have fluctuated [83][86][88] - EPS - The production capacity utilization rate, inventory, and profit of EPS have their own characteristics, and the production and profit of EPS have changed over time [92][94][97]