豆粕：规避USDA报告风险，等待指引，豆一，震荡，跟随豆类市场波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (June 23 - June 27), US soybean futures prices first declined and then rose. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices mainly declined. If the USDA area report next week (June 30 - July 4) is not unexpectedly bearish, soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are expected to rebound. Domestic soybean No. 1 spot prices are stable, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate with the soybean market [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market - US soybean futures prices: Last week, US soybean futures prices first declined due to factors such as the decline in US soybean oil and crude oil prices, good weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the avoidance of risks related to the end - of - June USDA report. They then rose due to the weakening of the US dollar and short - covering. The weekly decline of the main November contract of US soybeans was 3.32%, and that of the main December contract of US soybean meal was 3.39% [1] - US soybean export sales: There were two large - scale export sales orders. On June 26, 110,000 tons of soybeans were sold to Egypt for delivery in the 2024/25 season. On June 27, about 120,000 tons of soybeans were sold to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [1] - US soybean fundamentals: - Net sales: The weekly net sales of US soybeans were flat compared to the previous week, in line with expectations, with a neutral impact. In the week ending June 19, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 270,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 24%. The cumulative export shipments were about 45.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments to China were 0, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 22.48 million tons (compared to about 23.89 million tons in the same period last year) [2] - Goodness - of - fit rate: As of the week ending June 23, the US soybean planting progress was 96%, with a five - year average of 97%. The goodness - of - fit rate was 66%, the same as the previous week and 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year, with a neutral impact [2] - Brazilian soybean premiums, import costs, and crushing margins: As of the week ending June 27, the average CNF premiums of Brazilian soybeans for August - September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import costs decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margins changed little week - on - week (slightly increasing in August and slightly decreasing in September) [2] - USDA planting area report preview: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2025 to be 83.655 million acres, higher than the March 31 planting intention area of 83.495 million acres but still 3.9% lower than last year's 87.05 million acres. The USDA will release the report on June 30 (Eastern Time in the US), and due to the uncertainty of the report, it is necessary to wait for the USDA's guidance [2] - Weather forecast in US soybean - producing areas: In the next two weeks (June 29 - July 13), precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and temperatures will be slightly higher than normal in stages, with a neutral impact [4] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Futures prices: The main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 3.95% in the week ending June 27, affected by rapeseed meal (expectations of rapeseed purchases) and the decline in US soybeans (good weather in producing areas) [2] - Spot market: - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending June 27, the daily average trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 140,000 tons, compared with about 390,000 tons in the previous week [5] - Pick - up volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending June 27, the daily average pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 196,000 tons, compared with about 208,000 tons in the previous week [5] - Basis: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) increased week - on - week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly average basis was about - 110 yuan/ton, compared with about - 131 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 98 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5] - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending June 20, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 420,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 18% and a year - on - year decrease of about 52% [5] - Crushing volume: The weekly soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to decrease next week. As of the week ending June 27, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.49 million tons (2.38 million tons in the previous week and 2.18 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 70% (67% in the previous week and 62% in the same period last year). Next week (June 28 - July 4), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.28 million tons (1.99 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 64% (56% in the same period last year) [5] Domestic Soybean No. 1 Market - Futures prices: The main a2509 contract of soybean No. 1 had a weekly decline of 2.79% in the week ending June 27. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by the overall bearish atmosphere of the soybean market [2] - Spot market: - Prices: Soybean prices were stable. The net grain purchase prices in some northeastern and inland areas, as well as the selling prices in the sales areas, were the same as the previous week [6] - New soybean growth in the northeastern region: New soybeans in the northeastern region are growing well. High temperatures recently have been beneficial to the growth of new - season soybeans, and new soybeans in many areas are growing well. However, the acquisition volume of most traders has been slow, and inventories have decreased [6] - Demand in the sales areas: Demand in the sales areas is in a seasonal off - peak. High temperatures in many domestic areas, sufficient vegetable supplies, and low prices of meat, eggs, and poultry have led to a decrease in the demand for soy products in the terminal market. The sales of downstream products of most manufacturers have been slow, and the operating rate has been affected. Dealers mainly consume inventories and replenish stocks according to trading conditions [6]