黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250629

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the log market from multiple perspectives, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. It details the current situation of the log market, such as changes in supply from New Zealand, port inventory and shipment volume, and fluctuations in spot and futures prices, along with various price differentials and other price - affecting factors [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of June 22, 30 vessels departed from New Zealand in June, with 24 bound for mainland China and 6 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 10 vessels are expected to arrive in June and 20 in July, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June [5][8]. - A detailed list of 30 vessels including departure time, load, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1348 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29,800 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 474,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 420,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 202,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2317 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 27, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 819 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.9% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads widened this week, with the 07 - 09 spread at 28 yuan per cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread at 35 yuan per cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread at 7 yuan per cubic meter [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread 3.4.1 Spot Price - For the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 755 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The price of the 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 810 yuan per cubic meter, and the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter to 775 yuan per cubic meter. European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4][20]. - The prices of downstream construction timber, such as 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter radiata pine, and 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter white pine/spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous week, but decreased compared to four weeks ago [22]. 3.4.2 Price Differential - Multiple price differentials are presented, including regional differentials between Shandong and Jiangsu for various tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine), and differentials between tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 20 +) [23][52]. 3.5 Other - As of the week of June 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,521 points, a 168 - point (-9.9%) decrease from the previous week. The related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 636 points, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure and reached a new stage low. The US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.172, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased slightly by 1% to 1.651 [6][55].