棉花：内外盘均受到乐观情绪支撑

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - ICE cotton futures are in a volatile market. The end of the July contract, the easing of the Middle - East situation, and the dovish remarks of Federal Reserve officials have pushed up market risk appetite and led to a rebound from the low level. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on June 30 and the results of US tariff negotiations with other countries [18]. - Domestic cotton futures continue to rise in a volatile manner, following the fluctuations of the financial market sentiment. The price is supported by concerns about tight domestic cotton inventory, but the poor downstream operation restricts the upward momentum. Overall, it is still in a volatile trend. To break through the resistance at 14,100, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation [2][18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open price 66.70, high 69.52, low 66.27, close 69.32, up 2.56, up 3.83%, volume 124,415 lots, volume change 14,821 lots, open interest 152,992 lots, open interest change - 3,971 lots [5]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open price 13,500, high 13,775, low 13,425, close 13,760, up 265, up 1.96%, volume 1,042,381 lots, volume change 310,558 lots, open interest 591,022 lots, open interest change 66,040 lots [5]. - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open price 19,740, high 20,155, low 19,660, close 20,105, up 370, up 1.87%, volume 39,928 lots, volume change 5,128 lots, open interest 21,860 lots, open interest change 203 lots [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has continued to rebound, rising nearly 4% from the low this week. The end of the July contract has relieved the pressure of US cotton warehouse receipts, and the easing of the Middle - East situation and optimistic expectations for tariff negotiations have contributed to the rebound [1][5]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending June 19, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 0.62 million tons, down 67% week - on - week and 71% from the four - week average; weekly shipments were 4.18 million tons, down 10% week - on - week and 29% from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7559 billion tons, accounting for 110.2% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments accounted for 85% of the total annual contracts [6]. - India: Sowing progress exceeds last year. In 2024/25, domestic production increased by 980,000 bales to 30.12 million bales, and consumption decreased by 200,000 bales to 30.5 million bales. As of June 20, the cotton planting area was 1.3784 million hectares, an increase of 105,300 hectares compared to last year. In April, raw cotton imports increased by 33% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 27% month - on - month. Textile exports in April were $1.925 billion, down 8% month - on - month and up 17% year - on - year [8]. - Brazil: The new crop has started to be harvested. The 2025 cotton production forecast has been raised to 3.915 million tons. 97% of the 2024 crop has been sold, about 65% of the 2025 crop has been sold in the first - hand, and about 25% of the 2026 expected production has been sold to traders. The cotton export volume in the first two weeks of June is expected to be about 72,000 tons [8]. - Turkey: Textile enterprises are in a low - mood. The next - season consumption is expected to decline, and the current crop output is predicted to be about 800,000 tons, down from 850,000 tons in 2024/25 [9]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is weak. As of June 19, the actual sowing area in Punjab reached 89% of the plan, and Sindh only completed 65%. The early - stage output forecast remains between 6.5 million and 7.5 million bales. The export volume of five major textile categories in May was $1.26 billion, up 26.5% month - on - month but slightly lower than last year [10]. - Bangladesh: Waiting for the clarification of US tariff policies. Cotton demand has slightly increased recently, but new orders are emerging more slowly. The IMF has approved a loan of about $1.3 billion [11]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending June 27, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 73%, Vietnam's was 65%, and Pakistan's was 60% [11]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot trading is weak with rising prices. Spot trading is generally cold, and textile enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. As of June 27, the total number of No. 1 cotton registered warehouse receipts and forecast warehouse receipts was 10,597, equivalent to 445,074 tons [12]. - Downstream trading remains sluggish. The pure - cotton yarn market is in a slack season, with prices rising slightly in some areas. Spinning enterprises are suffering large losses, and their inventory is increasing. The full - cotton grey fabric market is also in a slack season, with prices stable, and weaving factories may further reduce prices to destock. The current startup level is 45.5%, lower than the same period in previous years [13][14]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprise cotton inventory, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][16][17]. 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are in a volatile market. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on June 30 and the results of US tariff negotiations with other countries [18]. - Domestic cotton futures are also in a volatile trend. To break through the resistance at 14,100, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation [18].