聚烯烃：短期偏高，趋势仍有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PP trends are weak. The previous core driving force for bulls has disappeared, and the new production capacity has offset the efforts on the supply - side. Macro - factors and domestic capacity expansion trends bring pressure. Although there are optimistic expectations for export due to the possible improvement of the trade war, the overall supply is in surplus, and downstream low - profit situations limit positive feedback. The key to the future seasonal reversal may be the Fed's interest rate cut [5][6]. - LLDPE is in a mid - term volatile market. The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the premium caused by polyethylene import risks has been reversed. The weak demand in the spot market leads to negative feedback in the industrial chain, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - PP Situation: The situation in the Middle East has tended to pause. The new production capacity has offset the supply - side efforts. Macro - factors such as China's debt - resolution pressure and the recession pressure in Europe and the United States, combined with domestic capacity expansion, bring continuous pressure. In the medium - term, the new production capacity pressure is concentrated in the first half of the year, and the overall supply is in surplus. The export market is affected by the trade war and external economic pressure, with limited incremental space [5][6]. - LLDPE Situation: The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the polyethylene import risk premium has been reversed. The weak demand in the spot market leads to negative feedback, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. In 2025, the new production capacity of domestic PE devices on the 09 contract is expected to be 2.05 million tons, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand in the downstream market is weak [7][8]. - Core Data: The spot prices of polypropylene and polyethylene have decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The polypropylene base - spread has slightly strengthened, while the polyethylene base - spread has weakened. The monthly spreads of both have certain changes. The operating rates of polypropylene and polyethylene have decreased compared to the previous period, and the polyolefin inventory has decreased [9]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Price Difference: The non - standard price difference of polypropylene is not conducive to price rebound [17]. - Operating Rate and Production: The overall short - term operating rate of polypropylene has increased month - on - month, but there are still many overhauls in July. The new production capacity has offset the support from overhauls. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period is 79.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. This week's domestic polypropylene production is 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from last week [21][23]. - Overhaul and New Capacity: There are still large - scale overhauls in July, but new production capacity and restarts lead to increased production. In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polypropylene is 7.855 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [25][27]. - Inventory: The production inventory and trader inventory of polypropylene have decreased month - on - month. The overall commercial inventory has decreased. The decline in production enterprise inventory is due to the increase in overhauls and the decline in imports, while the decline in trader inventory is due to active sales. The port inventory has increased [28][32]. - Cost: The crude oil price has decreased, leading to a decline in polypropylene production costs [33]. - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene manufacturers have increased [38]. - Downstream: The BOPP operating rate remains flat, the order days have decreased, and the finished - product inventory has increased. The BOPP profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The operating rates of tape master rolls, plastic weaving, non - woven fabrics, and CPP have all decreased, and the order days have also decreased [40][43][48]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Price Difference: The L - LL price difference has declined, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL price difference has expanded in the first five months of 2025 and may fluctuate later [64][67]. - Operating Rate and Production: The operating rate and production of polyethylene have decreased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25% from the previous period. This week's polyethylene production is 595,400 tons, a 2.86% decrease from last week [68][70]. - Overhaul: The expected overhaul loss in July is less than that in June [71]. - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polyethylene is 6.13 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [72]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyethylene have decreased month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory has decreased due to more overhauls and less imports, while the social inventory has decreased significantly [74][77]. - Cost: The crude oil price has declined, resulting in a decrease in polyethylene production costs [78]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based polyethylene devices has increased [84]. - Downstream: The operating rate of agricultural films has increased month - on - month, and the order days have also increased. The operating rate of packaging films has decreased, and the order days have decreased month - on - month. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [86][87][88].