能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250629

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Bottle Chip (PR): The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation pattern. With the approaching implementation of production cuts by leading factories, and considering factors such as high downstream domestic demand, reduced impact of freight on exports, and potential inventory reduction in July - August, it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9][10]. - Staple Fiber (PF): The market will be in a short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. Although there are plans for production cuts and contract reductions in July, the implementation may be relatively weak due to less prominent profit and inventory pressure. It is also recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Bottle Chip (PR) - Valuation and Profit - Aggregate cost has significantly increased, reaching around 6050 yuan/ton this week. Spot processing fees have recovered from 200 yuan/ton to the 270 - 300 yuan/ton range, and export profits have also improved, reaching about 700 - 720 yuan/ton [48]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and the short - fiber - bottle chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, and the substitution drive is low, while the bottle chip has a high cost - performance ratio compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][28][29]. - Fundamental Operation - Supply: The total production capacity involved in production cuts by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons. This week, Huarun's three factories started production cuts, with an operating rate of 88%. Yisheng and Wankai will conduct maintenance in early July. The current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber), and this week's bottle chip load dropped to 88.7% [9][33]. - Demand: This week, the downstream operation remained stable. Beverage companies' device loads ranged from 80% - 95%, edible oil factories' average operation was around 60% - 80%, and the operation rate of sheet materials in East China was around 60% - 80% and in South China was around 40% - 60%. From January to May 2025, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage product retail sales increased by 0.2% year - on - year. There are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation this year [62][68][69]. - Inventory: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories remained stable. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories was about 17.6 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in May was 2.93 million tons, 3.1 million tons in June, and 3.02 million tons in July. After the implementation of production cuts, it is expected to reduce inventory [53]. - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang has a total of 1.8 million tons of production capacity shut down. Huarun's polyester bottle chip devices in Changzhou, Jiangyin, and Zhuhai started to cut production by 20% on June 22, with a total reduction of 660,000 tons. Yisheng Hainan plans to shut down and overhaul 750,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, Yisheng Dahua plans to shut down and overhaul 350,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, and Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down and overhaul 600,000 tons of production capacity on July 1 [57]. - Export: From January to May, exports increased rapidly year - on - year. In May, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 742,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. However, there was a situation of over - exporting in May, which may affect the actual export volume from June to July. Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and overseas downstream demand will increasingly rely on imports [81][82][78]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In July - August, it is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Assuming that the large - scale production cut plan is implemented on schedule and lasts until August, and the downstream demand increases by 5% year - on - year compared to the peak season of last year, and the export demand is affected by freight in June - July but recovers in August, there may be a slight inventory reduction in July [93][94]. Staple Fiber (PF) - Valuation and Profit - The PF basis has maintained a stable oscillation, and the futures - spot structure remains in a backwardation structure. The disk processing fee has recovered [99][108]. - Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average load of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93.8%, and the operation rate of direct - spinning staple fiber for spinning is 97.1% (- 1%). Ningbo Zhuocheng has reduced the production of hollow staple fiber by 100 tons per day, and Sichuan Jixing's 200,000 - ton direct - spinning staple fiber device has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in early July [113]. - Demand: The downstream polyester yarn operation rate has remained stable, but yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased [133][135]. - Inventory: The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the inventory accumulation continues [118]. - Profit: With the decline in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125].