碳酸锂：单边和跨期走势与短期基本面背离，关注持仓风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unilateral and inter - period trends of lithium carbonate deviate from the short - term fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the position - holding risks. The market attributes the rebound of the absolute futures price to the change of the demand and production schedule expectation for July from negative to positive. After the strengthening of the unilateral futures price, the basis of trade and long - term contracts has strengthened significantly, while the inter - period spread has weakened significantly, which is inconsistent with the continuous large - scale cancellation of futures warehouse receipts. [3] - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to go short on rallies after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear, and the price of the 2507 contract is expected to range from 55,000 to 63,000 yuan per ton. [3][4] - For inter - period trading, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage (except for the 8 - 9 contract, which maintains the positive arbitrage idea) after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear at the end of June. [5] - For hedging, it is recommended to conduct short - hedging, and the short - hedging ratio is suggested to be increased to 70%. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The main contracts of lithium carbonate rebounded significantly. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan per ton, up 3,420 yuan per ton week - on - week; the 2509 contract closed at 63,300 yuan per ton, up 4,400 yuan per ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 750 yuan per ton to 61,150 yuan per ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2507 contract) weakened by 2,670 yuan per ton to - 2,090 yuan per ton, and the Fubao trader's premium and discount quote was + 400 yuan per ton, up 400 yuan per ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 60 yuan per ton, down 980 yuan per ton month - on - month. [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - The production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the operating rate improved. The price of spodumene concentrate rose by 9 US dollars per ton to 629 US dollars per ton this week. The production of salt lakes increased, and there will be new projects in Qinghai put into production in July. This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,767 tons, an increase of 305 tons from last week, with a growth rate of 1.65%. [2] 3.2.2 Demand - Driven by the better - than - expected performance of Xiaomi's large orders, the market expects the demand for power batteries to continue to be released. According to the statistics of consulting firms, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate battery cells in July increased by 6% month - on - month, and that of ternary battery cells increased by 4% month - on - month; the production schedule of cathode materials increased by 2% month - on - month. The market expects that the demand in the off - season of lithium batteries in July may be better than previously expected. [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The total social inventory continued to increase. The inventory of lithium carbonate was 136,837 tons, an increase of 1,936 tons month - on - month. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 21,998 tons. [2] 3.3 Market Data - The report provides a series of charts and tables showing the price trends, production, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products in the lithium industry chain, including the spot and futures price differences of lithium carbonate, the inter - period price differences of lithium carbonate futures, the price trends of lithium ore, lithium salt products, and lithium batteries, etc. [8][10][11][13][15][17]