能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250629

Report Summary Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that synthetic rubber will experience short - term oscillatory movements. The fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry, including both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, are currently in a neutral to slightly weak state, with no obvious trends in the short term [2][4]. Directory Summaries 1. Market Judgment - Futures - end Static Valuation: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The upper valuation limit is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. - Butadiene Fundamentals: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply is high, imports are neutral, demand is stable, production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals: Supply is expected to maintain a high year - on - year level and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and inventories are at a high year - on - year level. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures: In the short term, with the temporary easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the rebound of natural rubber, the cis - butadiene rubber futures are expected to oscillate without an obvious trend [4]. - Strategy: Unilateral short - term oscillatory movement; the spread between NR - BR widens [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - Capacity Expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with a slightly faster pace than downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [9][11]. - Supply - side: The industry's operating rate is at a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of some ethylene plants, the weekly output remains high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production [13][14][15]. - Net Imports: Short - term import volumes are neutral [4]. - Demand - side: - Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Capacity: New capacity has been put into operation in recent years, and more is expected in 2025 [19]. - ABS and SBS Capacity: There was significant capacity expansion in 2024 and 2025 [28]. - Fundamentals: ABS has stable operating rates, profits, and inventory levels. SBS has a certain capacity utilization rate [29][30]. - Inventory - side: Production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply: - Output: The weekly output shows certain fluctuations, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [38]. - Cost and Profit: The processing profit is gradually returning to above the break - even line [4]. - Imports and Exports: Import and export volumes show historical trends [43][44]. - Inventory: Enterprise, futures, and trader inventories are at certain levels, with enterprise inventories at a high year - on - year level [48][49]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - side: - Tire: Shandong's all - steel tire inventory and domestic semi - steel and all - steel tire operating rates show historical trends [52][53].