能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. Short - term spot trading is stable with a slight rebound due to low valuation and peak - season expectations, but the Hubei warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit upward potential. The long - term bullish factors are policy support for real estate, low spot prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish factors are the lack of substantial improvement in the real estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. -纯碱: The rebound is hard to sustain, and the medium - term is a sideways market. The glass market pressure restricts the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term low valuation and potential cost - side stabilization may drive a rebound, the future will face greater delivery pressure. The core issues are high production and high inventory, and potential supporting factors need the improvement of the glass market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,110 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,700 tons/day [13]. - Potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,530 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 5,700 tons/day [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited, with the current in - production capacity at about 157,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [18][19]. Glass: Price and Profit - This week's trading was basically stable, with most prices changing little. The price in Shahe is about 1,120 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in Hubei about 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and in East China about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [25][29]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The near - month warehouse receipt factor limited the monthly spread's rebound space [31][34]. - The profit of coal - fired devices is 82 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 199 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 101 yuan/ton, with actual profits varying by factory and region [39]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recent trading was relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly. The regional spread in East China shrank as prices declined [42][46]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11.5 yuan/square meter, down 6.38% month - on - month, and the 3.2mm coated is 18.5 - 19.5 yuan/square meter, down 3.80% month - on - month [49][51]. - As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. The actual capacity as of mid - June is about 98,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 32.38 days, up 6.36% month - on - month [52][57]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash supply has reached a peak, and recent maintenance has increased slightly. The current capacity utilization rate is 82.82% (last week was 86.5%), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 392,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.767 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 962,000 tons of heavy soda ash [62][64][70]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and this week's prices changed little. The near - month pressure is high due to delivery and trade pressure, mainly because of the weak glass market and high soda ash production. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 26 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 20.8 yuan/ton [74][76][84].