国泰君安期货·原油周度报告-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel; in the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, while SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in US shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center with difficult - to - refute inventory drawdown; in the long - term, the market is bearish, mainly because of the large long - term surplus pressure from production increases in OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., with difficult - to - refute inventory build - up [6]. - For trading strategies, go long on dips in the short - term and conduct band trading; go short on rallies in the long - term and trend - follow short positions. Clear and take profits on calendar spreads and avoid reverse spreads [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the Sino - US "trade" relationship eases [16]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [17]. 3.2 Supply - OPEC+ production increase falls short of expectations, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early July. In different countries/regions, there are various supply situations: Qatar shows supply tightness; Iraq's Basrah crude export has issues; the UAE reduces oil allocation; Saudi Arabia may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation; Russia's crude export decreases; the US sees changes in production, drilling, and inventory; Kazakhstan and other regions face supply shortages; Venezuela has supply changes; and Iran's export is at high risk [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - In June, refinery operating rates continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the seasonal demand surge. In different regions, demand varies: in Asia, China's refinery demand is affected by sanctions and conflicts, and India, Japan, and South Korea have slow demand recovery; in the Americas, the US is a major consumer, and its demand is affected by the economy and policies; in Europe, refineries are highly dependent on Middle - Eastern sour crude, and the conflict makes buyers cautious [9]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories decline; Cushing inventories stabilize but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined oil profit margins recover [59][68][71]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly. The monthly spread declines. SC underperforms overseas markets, and the monthly spread also declines. Net long positions increase [75][76][80].