宏观周报：新的储备政策将陆续出台-20250629

Domestic Macro Policy - New reserve policies will be gradually implemented to mitigate external shocks and promote sustainable economic growth[2] - The proportion of labor remuneration in the "work-for-relief" program will increase from over 30% to over 40% to boost local employment[8] - The central bank suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments to lower overall financing costs and stabilize the foreign exchange market[11] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies focus on managing technology enterprise incubators and ensuring safety in the new energy vehicle sector, prohibiting "involution" competition among manufacturers[8] - The government plans to issue 500 billion yuan in loans for service consumption and elderly care to stimulate consumption[14] Financial Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is promoting the establishment of a growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to lower the listing threshold for unprofitable companies[18] Trade Relations - China and the U.S. have confirmed details of the London Framework, with China approving certain controlled item export applications and the U.S. planning to lift some restrictions[20] Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with a projected GDP growth of 1.4% for 2025 and an inflation expectation of 3%[22] - There is an increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with discussions on the impact of tariffs on inflation[22] Market Trends - Major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, saw increases of 3.44% and 4.25% respectively over the past week[25] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 14.05% to $67.77 per barrel, while gold prices decreased by 2.79% to $3,269.20 per ounce[25]