能源化工液化石油气周度报告-20250629

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term outlook for the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is a wide - range oscillation. This week's changes in PG were driven by both geopolitical dynamics and supply - demand fundamentals. The civil demand remains seasonally weak, while the overall chemical end - use开工率 continues to rise, which is expected to provide some short - term support. However, with the upcoming release of CP next week, the market may adopt a wait - and - see attitude. It is recommended to closely monitor the subsequent release of CP prices, PDH device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price & Spread - The international LPG market fluctuated significantly due to Middle - East geopolitical issues from June 21st to 27th, rising first and then falling, with the AFEI propane index dropping by $53.3 per ton to $538.25 per ton. The domestic market also showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The early increase in crude oil prices provided short - term cost support, but later, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and weak demand, prices declined. Regional transaction centers were divided, with the civil gas prices in Shandong and South China rising, the ether - post C4 in Shandong fluctuating widely after a sharp rise and fall, and the East China market oscillating weakly [4]. - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including futures and spot prices of LPG, APS propane, and AFE propane, as well as regional quotes, basis, and historical data on regional premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][11][13]. 3.2 Supply - US Exports: The report shows historical data on US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, over the years from 2019 to 2025 [31][32]. - Middle - East Exports: It provides historical data on LPG exports from the Middle - East, including data from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as well as LPG imports in India, China, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - Domestic Supply: The domestic LPG production volume increased slightly, with the propane import arrivals concentrated, sufficient supply, and an increase in port inventories. This week, China's propane supply was 646,200 tons, a 72.69% week - on - week increase. Domestically, the total refinery commodity volume was 43,000 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. The international vessel arrivals were 603,200 tons, mainly in South China [4][52]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand continued to recover. The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit operating rate increased by 3.61% to 70.54% week - on - week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 0.69% to 64.40%. Next week, although Wanda Tianhong plans to shut down for maintenance, Liaoning Jinfa, Hebei Haiwei, and Quanzhou Guoheng are expected to restart. Overall, China's PDH operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [4]. - The report also presents historical data on the profitability and operating rates of chemical products such as alkylation, PDH, and MTBE [55][56].