财信证券宏观策略周报（6.30-7.4）：指数继续震荡整理，关注TMT及新消费补涨-20250629

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a corrective rebound, driven by the easing of risk events, but is approaching a strong resistance level since the 924 market trend, suggesting limited upward momentum [6][9][10] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors that have lagged behind, such as the AI industry chain, new consumption sectors, defense and military, and high-dividend stocks [6][16][18][19] - The report highlights that economic data remains to be observed, with expectations for policy stimulus to potentially be delayed until late September, and liquidity conditions are also anticipated to remain stable [10][15][19] Group 2 - The A-share market showed a general upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.73%, indicating a broad market rally [19][20] - The report notes that small-cap stocks performed particularly well, with the micro-cap index showing a significant increase of 6.94% [10][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic fundamentals and policy developments in the upcoming quarter, as these factors will influence market trends [10][15][19] Group 3 - The report identifies key sectors for potential investment, including AI-related industries, new consumption areas such as health and wellness, and defense sectors, which are expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and military reforms [16][18] - The report also mentions the potential for high-dividend sectors like banking and utilities to provide stable returns amid fluctuating market conditions [18][19] - The analysis of market valuation levels indicates that the overall market is in a wide-ranging fluctuation phase, with a focus on sectors that may experience a rebound [40][41]