聚酯数据周报-20250629

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with low valuations, there is no need to chase short positions in the short term. For PX, supply continues to shrink, and the unilateral price rebounds. For PTA, the cost is supported, but the monthly spread is under pressure, with the unilateral price oscillating slightly stronger. For MEG, the unilateral price oscillates stably, and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG should be closed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The volatility of the unilateral price comes from crude oil. In July, the supply - demand of PX remains tight, and it is advisable to go long on the monthly spread at low prices. The PXN strengthens, and the gasoline cracking spread also strengthens, improving the refinery's enthusiasm for starting operations. The toluene disproportionation profit continues to rise, while the toluene chemical economy weakens month - on - month, and the MX chemical economy rebounds month - on - month [18][22][30]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The load of CICC Petrochemical decreases, and the PX load slightly drops. In July, attention should be paid to the maintenance plans of Tianjin Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. In May, the domestic PX output increased to 2.97 million tons, and the weekly operating rate was 83.8% (- 1.8%). The apparent consumption in May was 3.55 million tons. In May, the import volume increased to 773,000 tons month - on - month. The Asian PX device operating rate this week was 74.3% (- 1.3%). In May, the Longzhong PX monthly inventory decreased to 4.51 million tons [53][55][62][79]. 3.2 PTA 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The TA device load increases, and the volume of credit warehouse receipts increases at high prices. The cost rises, the PX profit decreases, and the PTA profit remains at a low level. The 9 - 1 monthly spread around 200 yuan is recommended to be closed or appropriately reverse - arbitraged [89][96][95]. 3.2.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The de - stocking intensity narrows, and this week may turn into a stocking pattern. In May, the PTA output was 5.91 million tons, a 1% increase month - on - month. The container freight rate drops, which is beneficial for exports. In May, the export volume was 270,000 tons, a significant decrease. The social inventory is 2.16 million tons (- 40,000 tons), the de - stocking slope slows down, and it will gradually turn into a stocking pattern in July [99][101][108][122]. 3.3 MEG 3.3.1 Valuation and Profit - With the return of Iranian supply and weakening demand, the monthly spread and basis drop significantly. The seasonal demand for ethylene oxide decreases, and attention should be paid to the conversion of production. The profits of coal - based, MTO, and ethylene - purchased MEG production decline from high levels, while the profit of naphtha - based MEG production recovers [130][134][136]. 3.3.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The device operating rate drops. In May, the ethylene glycol import volume was 600,000 tons, and the import from the Middle East decreased. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on ethylene glycol imports may be reflected in August. The import profit decreases month - on - month, which may affect the June imports. The port continues to de - stock, and the import volume will continue to increase to 110,000 - 120,000 tons next week [144][146][151][156]. 3.4 Polyester 3.4.1 Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. 3.4.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.2% (- 0.8%). Multiple polyester devices reduce production, and the overall load will drop to 89.3%. The polyester output increases by 8% year - on - year. This week, the sales are sluggish, and the downstream enters the off - season [160][163][166][168].