美豆周度报告-20250629

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, there is no basis for a bull market in US soybeans due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a significant decline is small. The market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Bearish factors include Argentina raising the soybean export tariff to 33% before July 1st, leading to farmers' concentrated selling, and the smooth sowing of US soybeans with no large - scale drought threat for now [5]. - Bullish factors are that the biodiesel policy's increased addition volume exceeds expectations and restricts imports, which is beneficial for domestic demand of US soybeans; the old - crop balance sheet is tight, and there are strong concerns about drought in US soybean - producing areas under the ENSO neutral state; the planting area may be lower than expected [5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans declined under pressure, mainly driven by favorable weather in the main producing areas [10]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal continued to fall, affected by factors such as the biodiesel addition policy being unfavorable to soybean meal, good weather in the main producing areas, and general export sales [12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil slightly corrected as the conflict between Iran and Israel eased, and the sharp decline in crude oil prices led to the correction of US soybean oil prices from their high levels [14]. - Last week, the spot price of soybeans at the US Gulf ports slightly corrected [16]. - Last week, the procurement price at the farm (Iowa) was basically stable [18]. - Last week, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa declined [20]. - The spot price of soybeans in Brazil (Mato Grosso state) was basically stable [22]. - The overall spot price of soybeans in Brazil was basically stable [24]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved, with the drought rate at 32%, compared to 35% last week [28]. - The temperature in the Great Lakes and eastern regions of the main US soybean - producing areas is relatively high [30]. - Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate slightly less precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas and more rain in the central - southern regions [33]. - Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is relatively low [37]. - Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is slightly above normal [38]. - The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, the same as last week and 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year [40]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of June 20th, the crushing profit of US soybeans was $2.61 per bushel, compared to $1.87 last week [44]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 265,600 tons, down from 406,100 tons last week [46]. - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 192,800 tons, down from 215,800 tons last week [48]. - The weekly net sales volume was 402,900 tons, down from 539,500 tons last week [50]. - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year was 156,100 tons, up from 75,000 tons last week [52]. - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.227, indicating a basically neutral state [57]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61]. - As of June 17th, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 84,900 lots, up from 54,800 lots last week [65]. - As of June 17th, the net long position of soybean oil in CFTC was 61,800 lots, up from 33,900 lots last week [67]. - As of June 17th, the net short position of soybean meal in CFTC was 102,800 lots, up from 75,800 lots last week [69].