集运指数（欧线）观点：逢高布空2510-20250629

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The core view is to short 2510 at high levels. In the past week, the container shipping index first declined and then rebounded. The earlier decline was mainly due to Maersk's low opening price, leading to a bearish sentiment. The later rebound was mainly because the expectation of falling freight rates was gradually fully priced in, coupled with potential positive news on tariffs, and the market reduced positions and rose. The main 2508 contract closed at 1805 points, and the secondary main 2510 contract closed at 1325.9 points [1][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - The container shipping index showed a trend of first falling and then rising in the past week. The main 2508 contract closed at 1805 points, and the secondary main 2510 contract closed at 1325.9 points [4]. 2. Price 2.1 Spot Freight and Index Tracking - On June 23, the SCFIS mainly reflected the price of containers departing in week 25, which was dragged down by the ship schedule delays and container dumping in week 24, and the index closed at 1937.1 points, basically in line with the expected 1920 points. - On June 30, the SCFIS index mainly reflected the price of containers departing in week 26, which would be affected by the ship schedule delays in week 25 and the dumping of low - priced containers in the first half - month for two weeks. However, Evergreen's slight increase of $100/FEU at the end of the month had a certain pulling effect on the index. As of Sunday's ship schedule data, 4 ships in week 25 were delayed to week 25, with 1, 2, and 1 ships from Evergreen, PA, and MSC respectively, with a total delayed capacity of 62,000 TEU. There were 8 normal non - delayed ships in week 26, with a total capacity of 158,000 TEU. It was expected that the index for this period would be around 2020 points. - Overall, the settlement price of the 06 contract was expected to be around 1885 points [18][19]. 2.2 Seasonal Trends of Global Main Route Freight Rates - The document presented the seasonal trends of SCFI freight rates for multiple routes including Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, etc. from 2019 - 2025 [24]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 US Import - US import container volume data was presented in both weekly and monthly formats, including imports from major countries and regions such as China, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and India. In May, the total US import container volume was 2,320,538 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.6%. The cumulative import volume for the whole year was 12,375,213 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. - US imports from China in May were 753,070 TEU, with a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%. The cumulative imports from China for the whole year were 4,668,156 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [28][29]. 3.2 China's Export Perspective - In May, China's exports to the US declined further, with the year - on - year decline expanding from - 21% in April to - 34%. Exports to the EU increased, with the year - on - year growth rate rising from 8% in April to 12%. Exports to ASEAN increased at a slower pace, with the year - on - year growth rate falling from 21% in April to 15% [39]. 3.3 Asia's Export Perspective - Asia - Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) container trade volume data from 2011 - 2025 was presented. In April, Asia's container exports to Europe were 1.6422 million TEU, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The cumulative year - on - year increase from January to April was 9.4%. - Asia - North America container trade volume data from 2011 - 2025 was presented. In April, Asia's container exports to North America were 1.705 million TEU, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%. The cumulative year - on - year increase from January to April was 3.7% [43][48]. 4. Supply Side 4.1 European Route Ship Schedule - In July, compared with last week, there was 1 additional blank sailing and 1 additional undetermined voyage. The additional blank sailing was LION in the second week of July (week 28), and the additional undetermined voyage was FP2 at the end of July (week 31). If undetermined voyages were not considered, the average weekly capacity in July was revised down from 306,000 TEU/week to 300,000 TEU/week; if included, it was 302,000 TEU/week. - In August, the number of blank sailings remained at 4, and the number of undetermined voyages was revised down from 3 to 1. If undetermined voyages were not considered, the average weekly capacity in August was 306,000 TEU/week; if considered, it increased to 310,000 TEU/week. It was expected that the space for shipping companies to actively reduce capacity in August was relatively limited [63][64]. 4.2 Dynamic Capacity - Idle Capacity and Speed - In the past week, the speed of the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleet remained at a high - level shock around 15.4 knots, and the speed of the 17,000+ TEU container fleet also had a high - level shock around 15.6 knots. - The number of idle ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleet was 4, and the number of idle ships in the 17,000+ TEU container fleet was 3 [74][75]. 4.3 Turnover Efficiency - Regional Congestion - It was expected that the in - port capacity of North American ports would recover at the end of June, and the probability of port congestion similar to that in 2021 on the US routes was currently low. - The congestion situation in European ports had improved, while the congestion in Chinese ports had recently intensified [80]. 4.4 Static Capacity - New Ship Delivery - For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships, the top ten liner companies received 3 ships in June, with COSCO receiving 1 ship (COSCO Shipping Yangpu) deployed on the US route, and ONE receiving 2 ships (One Sapphire deployed on the Asia Latin America Express 1). From January to June, the top ten liner companies received a total of 36 ships (552,000 TEU), of which 10 ships (157,000 TEU) were deployed on the European routes. - For 17,000+ TEU container ships, Hapag - Lloyd and CMA CGM received 1 ship each in June, which were deployed on the European routes AE2 and FAL3 respectively. From January to June, the top ten liner companies received a total of 6 ships (142,000 TEU), all deployed on the European routes. - In the next 7 months (from June to December 2025), the top ten liner companies were expected to receive 43 ships (625,000 TEU) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and only Evergreen had a plan to deliver 1 large ship of 24,000 TEU for 17,000+ TEU container ships [82][83]. 5. Trading Logic and Strategy Recommendations - The 2508 contract was under a lot of short - allocation pressure based on the logic that the peak of July freight rates had appeared and the inflection point might occur in early July. The future game point was the implementation amplitude of the OA alliance's price increase in mid - July and the decline speed of freight rates in August. It was recommended to short the 2508 contract at high levels, with a neutral valuation reference of 1750 points (corresponding to $2500/FEU). - The 2510 contract was based on the "US inventory replenishment expectation" and the "low valuation" logic, and the decline process might not be smooth. It was recommended to short the 2510 contract at high levels, with the upper pressure level reference of 1500 points [5].