类权益周报：关键位置，关键大涨-20250629

Market Overview - From June 23 to 27, the equity market experienced a significant rise, with the Wind All A Index closing at 5268.17, up 3.56% from June 20, while the China Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%[1][10] - The increase was driven by stabilizing funds and a fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors, although the rally faced resistance starting Thursday due to limited potential buying power[1][19] Overseas Insights - The easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions led to a drop in the US Dollar Index, which fell below 97 on June 26, marking its lowest point since February 2022[2][31] - The market is currently desensitized to tariff impacts, focusing instead on the potential effects of the Section 232 investigation on specific industries, particularly copper futures[2][34] Strategy and Opportunities - Historical analysis suggests that after significant rallies, markets often enter a consolidation phase. The report highlights two types of past market behaviors: one driven by volatility expectations and another supported by stabilizing funds[3][35] - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods (supported by policy), technology (low crowding and ongoing narratives), and dividend stocks (potentially benefiting from risk-averse sentiment)[3][44] Convertible Bond Valuation - As of June 27, convertible bond valuations have stretched across various price levels, with the valuation center for an 80 CNY parity bond rising to 48.23%, a 1.25 percentage point increase from June 20[4][26] - The report notes that while convertible bond valuations are elevated, they remain below extreme levels, indicating potential for further growth[4][28] Risk Factors - The report warns of potential rapid style rotation in the equity market and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules, which could impact investor sentiment and market stability[5][50]