HUAXI Securities·2025-06-29 11:34Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In July 2025, the production of major home appliances showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with domestic production outperforming exports. The domestic air conditioning market was affected by terminal market conditions, leading to a downward adjustment in production [9][10] - The third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods will be disbursed in July, aimed at stimulating demand in the consumer goods sector [11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: July Production Data - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July 2025 indicated that domestic production was better than exports. The year-on-year growth rates for domestic air conditioning production from July to September are projected to be +8.1%, -19.2%, and -7.8% respectively, while export growth rates are expected to be -16.3%, -8.3%, and -16.6% [9] - Refrigerator production is also affected by U.S. tariff policies, with domestic production growth rates of +3.2%, -5.5%, and -3.5% for the same period, and export growth rates of -4.9%, -7.9%, and -4.1% [9] - The washing machine market is in a seasonal downturn, with domestic production growth rates of -4.6%, -6.9%, and -3.6%, while exports show growth rates of -3.8%, +1.2%, and +11.3% [10] 2. Company Key Announcements - Sanhua Intelligent Controls announced an expected net profit of 1.893 to 2.272 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% due to strong market demand in the refrigeration and automotive parts sectors [15] - Stone Technology submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [15] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - As of June 27, 2025, LME copper prices increased by 1.1% and LME aluminum prices rose by 2.14% compared to the previous week [16] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index increased by 2.00% as of June 27, 2025, while the USD to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.20% [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - From January to May 2025, the sales area of commercial housing, completed housing area, and new housing starts showed year-on-year declines of -2.9%, -17.3%, and -22.8% respectively [26]