Macro Economy - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support in stabilizing growth in the second half of the year, with a focus on consumption, real estate, and monetary policy adjustments [5][19][20] - The industrial profits of major enterprises decreased by 9.1% year-on-year in May, indicating challenges in effective demand and industrial product prices [4][18] Asset Allocation - The recommended order of asset allocation is stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a bullish outlook on stocks due to anticipated policy implementations [5][12] - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, a underweight position in bonds, and a neutral stance on commodities and currencies [3][12] Stock Market Performance - A-shares showed a positive trend, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.95% and the CSI 300 futures increasing by 2.83% [11][12] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with technology and defense industries leading the gains [35][36] Bond Market Insights - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.65%, indicating a slight upward trend in bond yields [11][41] - The report notes a divergence in the bond market, with credit spreads and term spreads showing slight increases [41][43] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices experienced fluctuations, with coking coal futures rising by 4.64% and iron ore contracts increasing by 1.64% [11][12] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor fiscal policies related to commodity markets [5][12] Currency and Forex Trends - The report indicates that the yield on money market funds is expected to fluctuate around 2%, reflecting a cautious outlook on currency investments [3][12] - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate is supported by the economic fundamentals, allowing for wide fluctuations [3][12]
宏观和大类资产配置周报：关注下半年稳增长的过程中金融发挥更大作用-20250629
Bank of China Securities·2025-06-29 11:51