有色金属行业跟踪周报：中东战争结束叠加特朗普拟提前公布下任联储主席人选，市场全面转向RiskOn-20250629

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 5.11% in the week from June 23 to June 27, outperforming the overall market [1]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards "Risk On," which has positively impacted industrial metal prices [1][27]. - Despite the positive outlook for industrial metals, the report highlights that the market has not fully priced in the risks of stagflation in the U.S. economy, suggesting potential upward movement for gold prices in July [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking 6th among 31 sectors, up 5.11% [14]. - Within the non-ferrous metals sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 7.21%, industrial metals by 6.53%, while precious metals declined by 1.48% [14]. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper prices reached $9,879 per ton, up 2.26% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥79,920 per ton, up 2.47% [2]. The supply side remains tight, with TC for imported copper ore dropping to -$45 per ton, marking a historical low [31]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum prices rose to $2,595 per ton, a 1.31% increase, and SHFE aluminum reached ¥20,580 per ton, up 0.56% [3]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 43.94 million tons [3]. - Zinc: LME zinc prices increased to $2,779 per ton, up 4.89%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,410 per ton, up 2.59% [42]. - Tin: LME tin prices rose to $33,565 per ton, up 2.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥268,870 per ton, up 3.19% [45]. Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $3,286.10 per ounce, down 2.90%, while SHFE gold was at ¥766.40 per gram, down 1.56% [49]. The report anticipates a potential rise in gold prices due to increasing inflation expectations in July [50].