Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-06-29 12:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing capacity regulation policies in the pig industry, recommending a "platform + ecosystem" model represented by Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [3] - The report highlights the need to shift from a cyclical perspective to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [6][17] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - In May, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a stable capacity within the green regulatory range [6][16] - The average pig price rose to 14.66 CNY/kg, with the complete cost for leading enterprises dropping to around 12 CNY/kg, suggesting a favorable profit outlook [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong financial performance, such as Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs [6][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent chicken seedlings remains high, with the average price at 47.93 CNY, reflecting a 5.25% increase [7][18] - The report notes a persistent contradiction between high production capacity and weak consumption in the white feather chicken industry, leading to potential market share gains for integrated enterprises [7][18] - Key investment targets include leading companies in imported breeding stock and fully integrated enterprises like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a recovery in aquaculture profitability due to rising fish prices and falling feed prices, with expectations for a rebound in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [8][19] - The leading companies are expected to improve their market share and cash flow as the capital expansion phase ends [8][19][21] 4. Pet Industry - The report indicates strong performance from domestic pet brands during the Tmall 618 sales event, with brands like Guibao and Zhongchong showing significant growth [11][22] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a focus on brands that demonstrate continuous high growth and strong overseas performance [11][22] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes a significant reduction in grain imports, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in the first five months of 2025, which may support price recovery [12][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply and the need for price increases to enhance farmers' income [12][29] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report states that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3922 points, reflecting a 1.95% increase, while the agriculture index rose by 0.80% [30][31] - The report highlights the overall stability in the pig market, with average prices showing a slight decline due to seasonal consumption effects [52]