6月银行业上涨5.37%，估值继续回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for long-term investment opportunities [4][8]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown strong long-term performance, with returns exceeding those of the broader market indices over various holding periods. Historical returns since 2010, 2015, and 2020 for the banking index were 170%, 92.9%, and 39.6% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [3][4]. - The banking sector's return on equity (ROE) remains above 9%, supported by stable asset quality and a decline in credit costs, despite a narrowing net interest margin since 2020 [4][8]. - The sector's valuation is currently at a historically low level, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.85 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.62, while the dividend yield stands at 5.21%, indicating attractive investment opportunities [25][24]. Monthly Performance Overview - In June 2025, the banking sector experienced a cumulative increase of 5.37%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.25 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [12][5]. - The trading volume for the banking sector surged by 74.8% in June, reaching 606.9 billion yuan, reflecting increased market confidence following regulatory reforms [24][29]. - Key performers in the banking sector included Zhejiang Commercial Bank (10.71%), Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (10.66%), and Pudong Development Bank (9.89%), driven by their low valuations and high dividend yields [17][16]. Market Environment - The interest rate environment remains low, with the 10-year government bond yield declining from 1.68% to 1.65% in June, contributing to a favorable backdrop for banking stocks [21][24]. - The report highlights a structural shift in credit demand, with direct financing increasing while traditional bank credit shows signs of decline, particularly in the residential loan segment [30][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks, emphasizing the importance of dividend strategies and asset quality [8][4]. - It recommends monitoring banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and regional banks with robust provisioning coverage [8][4].