Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.06.23 - 2025.06.29) increased significantly compared to the previous period, but are expected to decline significantly in the next period (2025.06.30 - 2025.07.04). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 14.95 years, longer than the previous period's 10.86 years [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds accelerated significantly in the current period but is expected to slow down in the next period. As of June 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 55.6% and 48.0% of the annual quota respectively, and 56.5% and 49.2% considering the next - period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of 2023 but higher than that of 2024 during the same period [2]. - 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance of local government bonds from July to September 2025 totals 254.99 billion yuan, including 139.54 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. - In the current period, 16.93 billion yuan of special new special bonds and 5.97 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts were issued. As of June 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 44.23 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 179.59 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 89.8%. 24 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Shandong and Sichuan were added in the current period) [2]. - In the current period, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds first decreased and then increased, with a slight overall widening. The weekly turnover rate decreased slightly. As of June 27, 2025, the spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 15.38BP and 20.04BP respectively, 0.34BP and 0.80BP wider than on June 13, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 0.99%, basically the same as the previous period's 1.00%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang were better than the national average [2]. - Currently, local government bonds still have certain allocation and trading values. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local government bonds have allocation value, especially those with a term of 7 years and above, with 15 - year and 30 - year bonds being more cost - effective. For public funds and other institutions, local government bonds still have trading value. It is recommended to focus on 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year (with considerable riding gains and good trading activity), and 20 - 30 - year (high absolute coupon and high trading activity) local government bonds and select regions with high valuation cost - effectiveness and good liquidity [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The Issuance Volume of Local Government Bonds in the Current Period Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period was 641.64 billion yuan (261.753 billion yuan in the previous period), and the announced issuance in the next period is 72.139 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 14.95 years, longer than the previous period's 10.86 years [2][10]. - As of June 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 55.6% and 48.0% of the annual quota respectively, and 56.5% and 49.2% considering the next - period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 42.9%/36.6% and 46.6%/38.5%, and in 2023 it was 57.3%/54.2% and 60.3%/57.2% [2][19]. - As of June 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 44.23 billion yuan (16.93 billion yuan in the current period), and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 179.59 billion yuan (5.97 billion yuan in the current period), with an issuance progress of 89.8%. 24 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Shandong and Sichuan were added in the current period) [2][21]. - 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance of local government bonds from July to September 2025 totals 254.99 billion yuan (129.7 billion yuan, 71.35 billion yuan, and 53.95 billion yuan from July to September respectively), including 139.54 billion yuan of new special bonds. In the same period last year, the issuance in the same regions was 258.49 billion yuan and 170.54 billion yuan, and the national issuance was 319.48 billion yuan and 210.59 billion yuan [2][7]. 2. The Spreads between 10 - Year and 30 - Year Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds in the Current Period First Decreased and then Increased, with a Slight Overall Widening, and the Weekly Turnover Rate was Basically Flat - As of June 27, 2025, the spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 15.38BP and 20.04BP respectively, 0.34BP and 0.80BP wider than on June 13, 2025, and were at the 21.8% and 76.4% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.99%, basically the same as the previous period's 1.00%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang were better than the national average [2].
地方债周度跟踪：发行明显提速，但下周再度放缓-20250629
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-29 12:55