扰动在前，提升在后

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience increased volatility in July due to external factors, particularly the US "reciprocal tariff" negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [2][3][15] - Domestic economic growth is projected to exceed the annual target, with a forecasted growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, driven by improved exports and structural policy support [3][18][21] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in real estate valuations due to anticipated policy easing, particularly in light of the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting [9][38][39] Group 2 - The banking and insurance sectors are identified as having high investment value, supported by stable high dividends and the influx of long-term capital [37][40][41] - Key sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemical products, which are expected to benefit from global economic conditions and geopolitical factors [9][38] - The report emphasizes the risks associated with the growth technology sector, which has seen significant price increases and is now facing potential valuation corrections [10][39]