关税“压力测试”系列之十三：如果美国失业率升至4.6%？

Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakening, with both labor supply and demand declining, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease[2] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals has fallen below the levels seen at the end of 2019, indicating a tightening labor market[2] - Since early 2025, the U.S. economy has been weakening, and the impact of tariffs on the labor market is a concern for the second half of the year[2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to approximately 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, with a potential increase of 0.3-0.7 percentage points if GDP declines by 1% due to tariffs[4] - If the unemployment rate reaches 4.6%, it may trigger the "Sahm Rule" recession signal, which has historically indicated economic downturns[5] - The average monthly increase in the unemployment rate from January to May 2025 was about 0.06 percentage points, suggesting a continued upward trend[5] Tariff Impact on Employment - The tariffs are expected to have a significant negative impact on the U.S. job market, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows signs of contraction[4] - The current economic cycle is characterized by a slowdown, and the tariffs are expected to exacerbate existing challenges such as declining wage growth and rising precautionary savings among consumers[4] Immigration Policy Effects - The tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration has led to a supply shock in the labor market, further exacerbating the decline in job growth[3] - The influx of illegal immigrants has historically helped to stabilize the labor market, but recent reductions in immigration may lead to increased unemployment rates[31] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 1.5% to 97.26, indicating market volatility amid economic uncertainty[6] - The actual yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased to 2.0%, reflecting changing investor sentiment and expectations regarding future interest rates[6]