耀看光伏第10期：硅料价格至底部区间，后续政策值得期待

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The current decline in silicon material prices is primarily due to the reduction in industrial silicon prices and lower electricity costs during the abundant water period, leading to expectations of increased operating rates among some companies. However, demand remains uncertain due to the end of domestic rush installations and the summer holiday in Europe. It is believed that silicon material prices are nearing the bottom cash cost, and further declines are limited. Recent policies such as green electricity direct connection and photovoltaic sand control have been introduced, which may accelerate industry recovery [2][4][5] Summary by Sections Silicon Material Price Trends - As of April 2025, silicon material prices have been continuously declining, with the latest average prices for N-type and dense materials at 34,000 and 32,000 yuan/ton respectively. The industry faces significant profit pressure [4][17] - The decline in silicon material prices is attributed to the drop in industrial silicon prices, which currently stand at 8,750 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, down 300 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year. The average price for industrial silicon in Q2 2025 decreased by 170 yuan/ton compared to Q1 2025 [19][21] Future Outlook - It is anticipated that silicon material prices are close to the cash cost of leading enterprises, indicating limited further decline potential. The cash cost for leading enterprises in Q1 2025 was 27,000 yuan/ton, and even with the recent drop in industrial silicon prices, the optimal cash cost for non-Southwest region capacities remains around 25,000 yuan/ton. The strong willingness to maintain prices is evident as companies face significant losses [5][33] - The second half of the year is expected to see favorable policies, with leading enterprises beginning to form a coalition. Recent policies aimed at supporting the photovoltaic industry, such as the green electricity direct connection and photovoltaic sand control, are likely to promote healthy industry development [5][37] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a dual bottom in terms of fundamentals and market sentiment, with policy support and technological iterations expected to accelerate industry clearing. The demand is expected to become clearer in June and July, and if supply and prices do not improve by December, the likelihood of policy interventions to provide relief is expected to increase [40]