贵金属行业专题研究：铂会成为下一个黄金吗？

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the platinum market but discusses the potential for platinum to become a significant investment opportunity, akin to gold [4]. Core Insights - The report identifies key drivers behind the recent surge in platinum prices, noting a 44.1% increase from early May to June 26, 2025, with prices reaching $1,392 per ounce [5][11]. - It highlights the relationship between platinum and other commodities, particularly its correlation with oil prices, and discusses the implications of this for future price movements [25][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of investor sentiment and speculative demand in driving short-term price increases, as evidenced by a significant rise in net long positions in platinum [24][21]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - Platinum prices have shown a notable upward trend, with a 1-month performance of 1.4%, a 3-month performance of 12.4%, and a 12-month performance of 24.0% [3]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global surface stocks of platinum are expected to decline for two consecutive years (2023-2024), which may not alone drive prices higher without additional demand factors [5][18]. - Domestic imports of platinum have reached a one-year high, indicating a potential increase in demand for investment and jewelry applications [18][19]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the report suggests that the recovery of the platinum-palladium price ratio may indicate potential upward price movements, driven by investment demand rather than industrial consumption [35][37]. - Long-term challenges include a decline in consumer interest in platinum jewelry and the concentration of platinum supply in a single country, which may limit its appeal as a reserve asset [32][35]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - The report notes a significant increase in speculative demand for platinum, with net long positions reaching an 86% percentile level over the past five years [24][27]. - The volatility in platinum leasing rates, which peaked at 21.0% in June, reflects tight supply conditions in the market [21][22]. Future Considerations - The potential listing of platinum futures in China is highlighted as a significant event that could enhance market awareness and speculative interest [37].