三季度几内亚矿石长单价格敲定，氧化铝现货价格下跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for alumina is "oscillating" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The third - quarter bauxite long - term contract price in Guinea has been finalized, and the spot price of alumina has declined. It is recommended to treat alumina from a short - term oscillating perspective [1][5][17] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Due to factors such as strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, bauxite mining in Shanxi and Henan was restricted, and prices remained firm. In the south, ore supply was stable, and most enterprises had completed restocking. The third - quarter bauxite long - term contract price from mainstream miners was between $74 - 75 per dry ton. After July, miners' quotes were above $77 per ton (CIF), while downstream customers' purchasing intentions were around $70 per ton (CIF). It is expected that Guinea's shipments will decline significantly in July. During the period, 3503000 tons of new ore arrived, including 2798000 tons from Guinea and 705000 tons from Australia. The freight from Guinea to China was $22 per ton [12] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was between 3050 - 3100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 55 yuan per ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3087.7 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40.4 yuan per ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was between 3200 - 3250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton. The spot transaction was good, and the restocking intention of aluminum plants and traders at low prices was strong. In the northern market, 33500 tons of spot alumina were traded this week, an increase of 9400 tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3061 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton. In India, 30000 tons of alumina were traded at FOB $366 and FOB $380 per ton respectively, and the import window was closed. As of the current week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2861 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 328 yuan per ton. The overall alumina production capacity in China was relatively stable, with slight fluctuations in some regions. The national alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.15 million tons, an increase of 100000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 82.5% [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.083 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90000 tons. Overseas, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 29.571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83000 tons [14] - Inventory: As of Thursday (June 26), the national alumina inventory was 3.137 million tons, an increase of 13000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of some single aluminum plants in the northern inland and some industrial chain groups in the northwest increased significantly, while the inventory of some aluminum plants in the North China region continued to decline slightly. The overall inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise; the inventory of alumina enterprises fluctuated slightly; the port inventory of imported alumina fluctuated slightly; the estimated amount of in - transit alumina increased significantly, and the inventory of the delivery warehouse decreased significantly [15] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 30319 tons, a decrease of 12909 tons from the previous week. The domestic futures price was strong last week. The price of Guinea ore in the third quarter was basically finalized at around $75, and the ore price remained stable. The cash cost of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan was between 2900 - 3000 yuan per ton. With the release of复产 and new production capacity, the alumina supply has become slightly surplus, suppressing the upward price [16] 2. Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain This Week - On June 27, 4000 tons of spot alumina were traded in the northern market at a price between 3100 - 3120 yuan per ton, with goods from Shanxi and Henan and transactions between traders [18] - As of June 26, the FOB price of Australian alumina was $360 per ton. After calculating the real - time freight, exchange rate, and port taxes, the import cost to Chinese ports was 3183 yuan per ton. Compared with the current mainstream northern domestic quotation of 3075 yuan per ton, the theoretical import profit was - 108 yuan per ton, and there was no import advantage [18] - On June 25, 30000 tons of alumina were traded in India at an FOB price of $380.03 per ton, with a shipment in early July. This price was about $14 higher than the price at the beginning of the week [18] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost End: Multiple charts were provided, including those related to domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [19][21][22] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: Charts showed domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. Data from February to June 2025 showed changes in alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and the supply - demand gap [35][43][44] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Multiple charts were presented, including those related to electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the amount and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [46][49][52]