央行2025Q2货币政策例会学习：稳增长与防空转，政策空间关注银行“降成本”效果

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, highlighting a stable recovery in social confidence and the need to strengthen domestic circulation [4][5] - It suggests that the banking sector will maintain stable operating performance in 2025, driven by optimized asset-liability structures, narrowing interest margin declines, controllable retail risks, and contributions from bond turnover [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted to a flexible approach in monetary policy implementation, focusing on the pace and intensity of policy tools without explicitly mentioning rate cuts [4][9] - The report indicates that the central bank will continue to guide financial institutions to increase credit supply while avoiding "funds idling" [5][9] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector's total asset growth rate fell to 4.9% as of May 2025, with large banks recovering high growth rates while rural commercial banks stabilized [10] - The net interest margin for the banking industry is expected to show an "L" shaped trend, stabilizing around 1.4% for the year, contingent on the stability of the deposit structure and cost improvements [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with stable dividend attributes and recovery expectations, suggesting that the sector will benefit from a low-interest environment [7] - Beneficiary stocks include Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Beijing Bank, with cyclical stocks like Suzhou Bank also recommended [7]