2025年三季度大类资产配置展望：股市中性看多，债市关注长久期

Macro Environment Outlook - Domestic demand recovery is slowing, but external demand is performing better than expected. In the first five months of 2025, China's exports increased by 6.0% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2.7% level in the same period of 2024, indicating an ongoing optimization of the export structure [13][14][16] - The investment sector still relies on manufacturing and infrastructure, while the real estate sector continues to decline due to supply and demand constraints. Consumption shows structural differentiation, with categories covered by the "two new" policies, such as home appliances and electronics, performing significantly better than those not covered [14][18] Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue a slight upward trend in Q3 2025, driven by long-term capital entering the market. The overall macro environment is weak, and the market is focusing on investment opportunities in the longer-term industrial lifecycle, particularly in technology [18][19] - Recommended sectors for Q3 include dividend-related sectors (banks, insurance, securities) and consumer sectors with fundamental support. The previously adjusted technology sector is also expected to see opportunities for recovery [19][20] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to maintain a loose funding environment in Q3, with a high likelihood of interest rate cuts in the US, which may lead to domestic rate cuts and a downward shift in the overall government bond yield curve. The long-end yield curve is expected to decline further, suggesting a focus on long-duration, medium to high-grade bonds [19][20] Commodity Market Outlook - Oil prices may continue to rise in the short term due to Middle Eastern tensions, but are expected to stabilize at a new level in the medium to long term. Gold prices are projected to remain relatively stable in Q3, with its long-term upward logic still valid as a hedge against weakening dollar credit [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The overall asset allocation recommendation is ranked as follows: equities > commodities > bonds > cash. For cautious, stable, aggressive, and high-risk portfolios, the recommended allocation for equity funds is around 20%, with a higher allocation to the CSI 500 compared to the CSI 300. The bond fund allocation is suggested to be around 5%, and the allocation for gold is recommended at 70% [6][19]