EBSCN·2025-06-29 14:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The turning point for coking coal mine inventories has been observed, leading to a seasonal increase in coal prices. As of June 27, the inventory of raw coal at 523 coking coal mines was 6.835 million tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons week-on-week, marking the first decline since May [1]. - The average closing price of coking coal futures was 847.5 yuan/ton, up 6.6% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in pricing [1]. - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 616 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7 yuan/ton (+1.15%) [2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Tracking - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 59.1%, down 2.2 percentage points week-on-week and 9.9 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [3]. - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4234 million tons, unchanged week-on-week and up 1.2% year-on-year [3]. - The outflow of water from the Three Gorges Dam was 17,843 cubic meters per second, an increase of 17.28% week-on-week [3]. Inventory Tracking - As of June 27, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.65 million tons, down 2.25% week-on-week and 5.52% year-on-year, returning to normal levels for the season [4]. - The inventory at independent coking plants was 6.7863 million tons, up 1.95% week-on-week, while the inventory at sample steel mills was 7.8121 million tons, up 0.85% week-on-week [4]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuation - China Shenhua (601088.SH) is forecasted to have an EPS of 2.5 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 16, rated as "Accumulate" [5]. - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) is expected to have an EPS of 0.37 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 17, also rated as "Accumulate" [5]. - The report highlights stable profitability for companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts, recommending China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4].