基础化工行业周报:原油价格略有回落,美乙烷出口有所改善-20250629
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-06-29 14:49

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical sector, with a focus on price increase opportunities, particularly in products like Kwang and H-acid [1] Core Insights - The chemical market has shown improvement as external disturbances ease, with solid-state batteries gaining attention. Current valuations in the sector provide a safety cushion, with historical PB at 18% and PE at 69% since 2010 [1] - Key developments include the signing of a cooperation agreement for Kazakhstan's first coal-to-gas project, the successful trial production of liquid methionine by New and Cheng in partnership with Sinopec, and the U.S. Department of Commerce granting licenses for ethane loading to certain energy companies [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $68.36 per barrel, down $8.09 or -10.58% week-on-week, while WTI futures averaged $65.71 per barrel, down $8.53 or -11.48% [10] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index with a 3.11% increase, while the petrochemical sector underperformed with a -2.07% decline [10][11] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry shows mixed operating rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 65.6% and semi-steel tire rates at 78.1%. Domestic and international demand is recovering, with expectations for increased overseas market activity [29][30] - The dye market remains stable, with prices for disperse black ECT300% holding steady at 16.5 CNY/kg, while demand in the textile sector is weak [31] - The carbonate market is experiencing weak pricing, with prices for dimethyl carbonate at 3715 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton or -1.98% [31] Key Chemical Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price changes in various chemical products, with the price of titanium dioxide averaging 13943 CNY/ton, down 1.04% week-on-week [31] - The market for vitamin E is experiencing a downward trend, with prices expected to drop to around 65 CNY/kg [32][33] Industry Developments - New and Cheng's liquid methionine project is progressing well, with trial production yielding qualified products [3] - The ethylene market is under pressure, with prices expected to remain weak due to limited demand and cautious purchasing behavior [36][39] Agricultural Chemicals - The market for acetamiprid is tight, with prices around 140,000 CNY/ton, while demand for high-efficiency insecticides remains stable [40] - The market for sweeteners like sucralose is experiencing a demand slump, with prices holding steady at 190,000-200,000 CNY/ton [42]