Minsheng Securities·2025-06-29 14:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the automotive and auto parts industry, particularly highlighting the performance of new energy vehicles and key domestic manufacturers [4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing strong growth driven by policy support and increasing demand for new energy vehicles, with significant year-on-year and month-on-month sales increases [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of intelligent and globalized breakthroughs among quality domestic brands, recommending companies such as Geely, BYD, Li Auto, and Xiaomi [4]. - The report notes a competitive pricing environment in the automotive market, with rising discounts impacting profitability [22]. Summary by Sections 0.1 Passenger Vehicles - The report forecasts a 5.7% year-on-year increase in wholesale passenger vehicle sales for Q2 2025, reaching 6.65 million units, with a 4.6% month-on-month increase [12]. - New energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 3.6 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a 32.8% year-on-year increase and a 25.4% month-on-month increase [14]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is projected to be 54.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a significant market shift towards electric vehicles [21]. 0.2 Auto Parts - The report highlights a decrease in raw material costs and shipping fees, which is expected to benefit companies with significant export operations [46]. - Key auto parts manufacturers are expected to see improved performance due to rising demand from leading automakers like Xiaomi, Geely, and BYD [48]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in lightweight and intelligent components as the industry shifts towards electric and smart vehicles [48]. 0.3 Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is recovering, with a 10% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales, driven by local replacement subsidy policies [50]. - Major players like Dongfeng Motor and Beiqi Foton are expected to gain market share, maintaining a stable competitive landscape [50]. - The report notes a decline in heavy truck exports due to increased market entry barriers abroad [51]. 0.4 Motorcycles - The report anticipates a 26.7% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of medium and large motorcycles, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [3]. - The focus is on leading domestic motorcycle manufacturers as consumer preferences shift towards higher displacement models [3]. 1 Weekly Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a 2.62% increase in A-share automotive stocks during the week of June 23-27, 2025 [1]. - The report recommends a core investment portfolio including companies like Geely, BYD, and Xiaomi, which are expected to benefit from ongoing market trends [1].