信用策略周报20250629：实操视角下的信用主体骑乘库优化-20250630

Group 1 - The report highlights a weakening performance in credit markets after a period of continuous growth, with yields and spreads widening, particularly in the 1-2 year short credit segment which saw significant pullbacks [10][9] - The credit yield curve shows a notable steepness in the 3Y and 5Y segments, with corresponding yield and credit spread compression observed during the week ending June 20, 2025 [10][9] - Long-term credit bonds, especially from local government financing vehicles, are noted for their attractive coupon rates, significantly higher than those of industrial issuers, leading to undervalued transaction phenomena [10][9] Group 2 - Trading sentiment in the credit bond market has shown structural warming, with overall transaction volumes peaking before a slight decline, particularly in the industrial bond sector, while local government bonds continue to present value, especially in lower-rated and longer-duration varieties [16][2] - The report indicates that the secondary market for credit bonds remains active, with a notable focus on long-term industrial bonds, despite a decrease in transaction volumes for perpetual bonds [16][2] Group 3 - The report discusses the controllable impact of financial management on credit bonds during quarter-end periods, noting a shift towards improved liquidity in asset allocation, which has reduced the direct pressure to sell bonds or redeem products at quarter-end [18][3] - In the last week of June, net purchases of credit bonds by financial management products saw a slight decline, yet there was continued accumulation of perpetual bonds [18][3] Group 4 - Looking ahead to July, the report anticipates growth in financial management scales post-quarter-end, driven by significant deposit rate cuts in May and a delayed response from banks, which is expected to enhance credit allocation power [24][4] - The report raises questions about whether the incremental allocation in financial management will extend duration, suggesting that while it may happen, the extent will depend on market conditions and risk appetite [24][4] - The report notes that insurance allocation power in credit markets may be limited due to slowing premium income growth and the current pricing levels of credit products compared to long-term local government bonds [24][4] Group 5 - The report presents a refined selection of credit issuers with steep yield curves and potential riding value, focusing on those with a duration control of approximately 3 to 6 months and an implied rating of AA or above [30][5] - Specific issuers are highlighted, including Green City Real Estate Group and China Pingmei Shenma Holding Group, with detailed metrics on their credit ratings, yields, and transaction volumes [32][5]