港股、海外周观察：全球普涨，美股创新高

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, indicating that a breakthrough of previous highs requires new catalysts [1][4] - The US stock market is in a rebound trend, reaching historical highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both showing significant gains of 3.4% and 4.2% respectively [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has increased the probability of interest rate cuts, with expectations rising to three cuts by the end of the year [1][16] Group 2 - Concerns over "capital tax" have eased as the US government is likely to repeal Clause 899, which could have led to foreign capital withdrawal from US assets [2] - Optimism surrounding AI continues to drive the technology narrative, with strong performance and guidance from companies like Micron Technology and Nvidia [2][3] - The report notes that the US stock market is experiencing a return of funds, with significant inflows into US stock ETFs, totaling nearly $42.7 billion over two weeks [3][19] Group 3 - In the short term, the US stock market is expected to experience a primarily upward trend, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing AI investment enthusiasm [3][4] - The report highlights that the upcoming quarter is crucial for observing economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, which will guide market movements [4][5] - The report indicates that the financial environment in the US remains at a relatively low level, providing a supportive backdrop for market growth [4][19] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that despite uncertainties, the US stock market is expected to return to a trajectory driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience in the second half of the year [4][19] - The report notes that the inflow of funds into the financial, healthcare, and industrial sectors is notable, while significant outflows are observed in the information technology sector [5][15] - The report also mentions that gold ETFs have seen substantial inflows, particularly in the US and Ireland, indicating a shift in investment preferences [6][22]