五矿期货早报有色金属-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a daily overview of the non - ferrous metals market, including price movements, inventory changes, and supply - demand analysis for various metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. It also offers short - term price forecast ranges for each metal [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price: Last week, LME copper rose 2.26% to $9,879/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,920 yuan/ton. This week, SHFE copper is expected to trade between 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M between $9,600 - 10,000/ton [2]. - Inventory: Three major exchanges' inventory decreased by 20,000 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19,000 to 82,000 tons, LME decreased by 8,000 to 91,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 7,000 to 190,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons [2]. - Supply - demand: Copper raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and Chinese exports are increasing, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices [2]. Aluminum - Price: On Friday, LME aluminum rose 0.39% to $2,595/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton. The expected trading range for SHFE aluminum is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,550 - 2,620/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8,000 to 34,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 4,000 to 314,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 8,000 to 345,000 tons [4]. - Supply - demand: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, providing strong support for prices. But as prices rise, the negative feedback from the consumption side increases, restricting upward movement [4]. Lead - Price: On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.55% to 17,126 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,031.5/ton. The overall lead price is expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of SHFE lead may be limited [5]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory is 45,900 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,300 tons. LME lead inventory is 273,300 tons [5]. - Supply - demand: Primary supply remains high, while secondary supply is tight. Lead - acid battery prices stop falling and rise, and downstream procurement improves [5]. Zinc - Price: On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.79% to 22,377 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,770/ton. The strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may cause market sentiment disturbances, and the LME Cash - 3S structure boosts zinc prices [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory is 6,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,500 tons. LME zinc inventory is 119,900 tons [6]. - Supply - demand: Zinc ore supply remains high, and TC continues to rise. There is a high expectation of zinc ingot production increase, but some smelters' production changes affect inventory accumulation [6]. Tin - Price: Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Domestic tin prices are expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin between $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7]. - Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the national major market tin ingot social inventory is 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [7]. - Supply - demand: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, and upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell. However, terminal demand is weak, and the industry chain is in a stalemate [7]. Nickel - Price: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The recommended operation is to short at high prices. SHFE nickel is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M between $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. - Inventory: The combined domestic and LME visible inventory is 240,000 tons, a decrease of 726 tons from last week [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: On Friday, the MMLC late - session price was 61,177 yuan, up 1.16% from the previous working day. The expected trading range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 62,600 - 64,000 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level, and the trend may continue until the beginning of the peak season in August [10]. - Supply - demand: The fundamentals have not changed substantially. Although prices have rebounded, the supply - clearing process slows down, and the upward space is limited [10]. Alumina - Price: On June 27, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.29% to 2,990 yuan/ton. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Inventory: On Friday, the futures warehouse receipts were 30,300 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day [12]. - Supply - demand: The alumina production capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change, and prices are expected to be anchored by costs [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [15]. - Inventory: The futures inventory is 112,327 tons, a decrease of 119 tons from the previous day. The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [15]. - Supply - demand: The market supply exceeds demand, and demand is weak. Although there are production - cut news, the pattern has not changed [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: Last week, the AD2511 contract rose 0.76% to 19,790 yuan/ton. It is expected to trade in a short - term volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the change of the premium over the spot [17]. - Inventory: The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory continued to increase, and the total of social and factory inventory increased [17]. - Supply - demand: In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and prices mainly follow the cost - side (mainly affected by aluminum prices) [17].