光大证券晨会速递-20250630

Macro Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profit growth turned negative in May due to factors such as weakened export support, expanded year-on-year decline in industrial product prices, and lower profit margins [2] - The previously high-profit growth in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector also turned negative [2] - Future recovery of industrial enterprise profits remains uncertain due to overseas demand fluctuations, low industrial product prices, and insufficient effective demand [2] Market Strategy - The most severe external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance towards potential policy changes from Trump is still necessary [3] - With a 90-day pause on "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the US, exports are expected to maintain high growth in the short term, with consumption being a key driver of economic recovery [3] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile in the short term, focusing on domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low allocation of funds [3] Bond Market - The convertible bond market saw significant gains, with the index rising by 2.1% for the week, marking the highest increase of the year [4] - The overall performance of the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market since the beginning of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 6.6% [4] - Future market performance will be influenced by fundamentals and macro policies, particularly in sectors aimed at boosting domestic demand [4] Quantitative Analysis - The market displayed a small-cap style, with significant excess returns from block trading combinations [6] - The Beta factor and liquidity factor achieved positive returns of 1.06% and 0.37%, respectively, while the market capitalization factor and residual volatility factor recorded negative returns [6] - The block trading combination outperformed the overall index by 1.16% [6] Industry Research Computer Industry - The report emphasizes the potential of stablecoins in the internationalization of the RMB, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Newland, Lakala, and Newland [10] - Ant Group's competitive advantages in compliance, technology, and market penetration are highlighted, recommending attention to companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Longxin Group [10] Internet Media - The gaming industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with strong consumer sentiment and a robust pipeline of new products for the summer [11] - Recommendations include Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World, with a focus on innovative gameplay in various segments [11] Renewable Energy - The wind power sector is expected to see continuous improvement in profitability due to stable prices and cost reductions [12] - The report also highlights the importance of upcoming policies in the photovoltaic sector and suggests monitoring developments in solid-state batteries and energy storage [12] Non-Ferrous Metals - LME copper inventories have dropped to a 22-month low, with domestic air conditioning production expected to decline by 13% year-on-year [13] - The report anticipates strong copper prices in the short term, recommending investments in companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining [13] Real Estate - The real estate sector shows weak beta but highlights structural alpha opportunities in core cities [17] - Sales in major cities increased by 14.4% from January to May 2025, with a recommendation to focus on companies like China Resources Land and China Jinmao [17] Agriculture - The pig farming sector is expected to recover as inventory levels decrease, with a long-term view of profitability growth [16] - Recommended companies include Juxing Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, as the industry moves towards a long-term upward cycle [16]