摩根士丹利：中国经济韧性增长下遮蔽了结构分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, with expectations of GDP growth slowing to 4.5% in the third quarter of 2025, following a strong second quarter performance [3][13]. Core Insights - The second quarter showed robust growth, but June data revealed emerging concerns, particularly in retail and export sectors, indicating a potential softening of economic momentum [3][4]. - The real estate market continues to struggle, with declining transaction volumes and increased fiscal pressure on local governments, necessitating potential policy adjustments [5][12]. - Consumer spending is being supported through financial measures, with a focus on enhancing service supply to stimulate demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The second quarter GDP growth is projected to reach 5%, but a decline to 4.5% is anticipated in the third quarter due to weakening exports and a sluggish real estate market [3][13]. - Retail sales showed strong performance in early June, driven by promotional activities, but this may not be sustainable as consumer sentiment weakens [4][10]. Export and Trade - Exports to the U.S. saw a rebound in June, likely due to seasonal demand for the holiday shopping season, but overall export performance remains weak [4][18]. - Container throughput at major ports in China has significantly slowed, indicating a broader decline in trade activity [4][14]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with transaction volumes continuing to decline and fiscal revenues falling short of budget targets [5][22]. - Local governments face increasing fiscal challenges, prompting discussions on expanding budgetary flexibility and potential new financing tools [5][12]. Consumer Spending and Policy Measures - The government is implementing measures to support consumer spending, including financial backing for service consumption and infrastructure development [10][11]. - Structural reforms are necessary for a more balanced economic recovery, focusing on social welfare and tax reforms [11][12].