高盛：中国 5 月工业利润显著下滑；6 月 PMI 前瞻

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's industrial profits fell by 9.4% year-over-year in May, while revenue increased by 0.7% year-over-year, indicating a decline in profitability despite slight revenue growth [1][5] - Sequentially, industrial profits and revenue decreased by 9.7% and 1.0% non-annualized in May, contrasting with increases in April [1][5] - Downstream industries experienced a profit decline of 3.0% year-over-year in May, while upstream industries saw a more significant drop of 27.6% year-over-year [5] Summary by Sections Industrial Profits - Year-over-year, industrial profits decreased by 9.4% in May compared to a growth of 3.2% in April [2][5] - Sequentially, profits fell by 9.7% non-annualized in May after seasonal adjustment, reversing from a 4.0% increase in April [5] Industrial Revenue - Year-over-year, industrial revenue rose by 0.7% in May, down from 2.6% in April [2][5] - Sequentially, revenue fell by 1.0% non-annualized in May, compared to a decrease of 0.6% in April [5] Profit Margins - Overall profit margins remained stable in May on a 12-month average basis, with downstream profit margins outperforming upstream [5] Sector Performance - The broad equipment manufacturing sector contributed 2.4 percentage points to the year-over-year growth of industrial profits in the first five months of the year [5] - Within this sector, profits in electrical machinery and general equipment grew by 11.9% and 11.6% year-over-year, respectively [5] PMI Forecasts - The report forecasts the NBS manufacturing PMI to be 49.4 in June, slightly down from 49.5 in May [6] - The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.1 in June, an increase from 48.3 in May, reflecting a delayed response to US-China tariff reductions [6]