高盛：歌礼制药_2025 年中国医疗企业日 —— 关键要点

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Ascletis Pharma Inc. with a 12-month target price of HK$4.92, indicating a potential downside of 46.0% from the current price of HK$9.10 [6]. Core Insights - The management has outlined a clearer development strategy for ASC30, which includes both oral and subcutaneous formulations of GLP-1RA, with a focus on achieving more weight loss and better tolerability compared to competitors [2][5]. - The emergent metabolism pipeline includes ASC47 and ASC50, with key data readouts expected in the second half of 2025, which could unlock further value in the anti-obesity and broader metabolism franchise [5]. Summary by Sections ASC30 Development Strategy - The oral formulation of ASC30 has shown a competitive preliminary drug profile in safety and weight loss, positioning it among the top tier of oral GLP-1 drug candidates [2]. - The subcutaneous formulation of ASC30 has a 36-day half-life, allowing for potential monthly dosing, which is competitive compared to other long-acting candidates [2][5]. - Management plans to initiate a Phase 2a study for ASC30 with topline data expected by the end of 2025 [2]. Emergent Metabolic/Autoimmune Pipeline - ASC47, targeting lean mass maintenance while reducing fat mass, has begun a Phase 2a trial in combination with semaglutide, with data expected by Q4 2025 [5]. - ASC50, an oral small molecule targeting IL-17, has shown promising pharmacokinetic data and is currently in a Phase 1 study for plaque psoriasis, with results anticipated in Q1 2026 [5]. - ASC40 has completed a Phase 3 study in acne in China, and management plans to file for NMPA NDA in the next six months [5].