高盛：GOAL 风险观察_对冲下半年滞胀与再通胀尾部风险

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on hedging strategies due to elevated macroeconomic and policy uncertainty, indicating a cautious investment stance in the current environment [3][4]. Core Insights - Elevated macroeconomic and policy uncertainty is expected to maintain high equity volatility in the second half of the year, with potential catalysts such as tariff deadlines and geopolitical tensions [3][4]. - Stagflationary shocks pose a significant risk to balanced portfolios, particularly with inflation risks driven by tariffs, while a reflationary rebound could enhance growth optimism [3][4]. - Recent shifts in investor option positioning indicate a more bearish outlook on equities, while bullish positioning in EUR/USD has begun to moderate [3][4]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment - The probability of remaining in a high volatility regime for the S&P 500 is elevated, primarily due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and potential negative surprises from various geopolitical events [4][5]. - The report anticipates a deceleration in US GDP growth to 1.25% year-over-year by Q4, influenced by recent labor data and declining hard economic indicators [4][7]. Hedging Strategies - The report identifies optimal hedges for stagflationary scenarios, including puts on USD high-yield credit and S&P 500 equal-weight, which are seen as attractive due to their low implied volatility relative to equity volatility [11][14]. - In a reflation scenario, rates payers and calls are highlighted as optimal hedges, with the implied volatility of longer-dated bonds having reset to near post-2020 lows [13][16]. Investor Positioning - Recent data shows a shift towards bearish positioning in equities, while bullish sentiment has increased in commodities like oil and gold [20][22]. - The report suggests that call options on EURO STOXX Banks and US Financials are attractive as upside hedges, while puts on MSCI EM and other emerging markets can serve as downside protection [16][20].