高盛：石油分析_供应中断_仍有哪些已反映在价格中

Investment Rating - The report indicates a low probability of major supply disruptions, with current market pricing reflecting less than 4% probability of such events occurring this year [4][18][19]. Core Insights - Oil prices have returned to near pre-escalation levels, with Brent crude currently in the high $60s range, following a muted geopolitical response from Iran [3][6]. - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has significantly decreased, falling from nearly $15 per barrel to below $1 per barrel [7][18]. - Market expectations for Brent prices in September and December 2025 suggest a 60% chance that prices will remain in the $60s, with a 28% probability of exceeding $70 [11][14]. Summary by Sections Market Pricing of Supply Disruptions - The probability of a major supply disruption, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has decreased from around 15% to below 4% [3][18][19]. - The report highlights a disconnect between oil market pricing and Polymarket predictions regarding supply disruptions, with oil markets consistently pricing lower probabilities [22][25]. Geopolitical Risk Premium - The geopolitical risk premium has sharply declined, reflecting traders' experiences with geopolitical shocks that did not lead to significant oil supply disruptions [3][25]. - The report attributes this decline to various factors, including Iran's restrained response and strong incentives from the US and China to avoid large disruptions [25]. Price Expectations - The market's modal expectation for Brent prices in September 2025 remains in the $60s, with a wider distribution for December 2025 prices [14][16]. - The report suggests that the risks to Brent prices in December 2025 are now roughly symmetric, contrasting with the short-term upside skew observed previously [14][16].