美银：The Flow -A Game of Two HalvesShow

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" position on "BIG" (Bonds, International, Gold) and suggests cyclical buying of Treasuries [19] Core Insights - The S&P 500 is on the verge of its 7th major breakout since 1990, with only 22 stocks at all-time highs, indicating a narrow market participation [3][21] - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator has risen to 5.8, reflecting a neutral sentiment but indicating potential for profit-taking as inflows to equities and high-yield bonds approach 1.0% of AUM [13][56] - The report highlights significant inflows across various asset classes, with $427 billion to cash, $325 billion to stocks, and record inflows of $40 billion to gold in H1 2025 [12][34] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at 26.2%, stocks at 8.4%, and commodities at 0.4%, while oil and crypto have declined by 7.8% and 14.1% respectively [1][2] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the US dollar has decreased by 10.4% year-to-date, while the 12-month forward EPS expectations are 11% in the US, 8% in China, and 6% in Europe [18] Investment Flows - Weekly flows indicate $26.1 billion to cash, $12.1 billion to bonds, and $3.5 billion to equities, with a notable outflow of $4.4 billion from US small-cap stocks [11][16] Policy Outlook - The report anticipates potential Fed rate cuts and a shift in fiscal policy under Trump, which could support equity markets and lead to a US dollar bear market [19][20] Sector Analysis - The report suggests long positions in airlines and small-cap value stocks while shorting defense and momentum stocks, reflecting a tactical approach to sector allocation [17][20]