瑞银：日本 2025 - 2027 年经济展望_正常化进程暂停但未终结

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Japanese economy, expecting a technical recession in H2 2025, with a long-term normalization expected to resume from H2 2026 [5][6][105]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Japan's economy is likely to face a technical recession in H2 2025 due to a significant fall in exports, although domestic demand remains firm [6][105]. - Japan's CPI inflation is projected to decline, while wage growth is expected to maintain an upward trend [6][105]. - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to delay its next rate hike until July 2026, with a base case policy rate of 1.5% expected by 2027 [6][105]. - The report discusses the potential for Japan's economy to recover with a forecast of 1% real GDP growth, 2% CPI inflation, and 3% wage growth by 2027 [105]. - Long-term challenges such as demographics and high government debt are acknowledged, but there is optimism for a potential economic turnaround driven by technological advancements and a generational shift in leadership [6][105]. Economic Forecasts - Real GDP growth for Japan is forecasted at 0.1% for FY 2025, 0.9% for FY 2026, and 0.8% for FY 2027 [22]. - Core CPI is expected to be 2.6% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027 [22]. - The report anticipates a decline in Japan's exports, particularly in the automotive sector, due to tariff impacts [16][20]. Sectoral Insights - The report emphasizes the need for increased investment in human capital and enhancement in key sectors such as defense, energy, and IT infrastructure, including AI [6][105]. - Corporate profits and sentiment are strong, leading to robust capital expenditure plans, although inflation-adjusted real capex is subdued due to supply constraints [58]. Global Context - The report notes that the global economy is expected to recover from H2 2026, with Japan's economy normalizing thereafter [6][105]. - The impact of US tariffs is highlighted as a significant factor affecting Japan's economic outlook, with expectations of slower global growth [7][102].